Commodities Update Lower real yields to support a higher gold price We have raised our forecast for the gold price, as we expect real yields to drift a little lower and remain low for some time. We now think that the price of gold will finish the year at $1,900 per... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper rally not entirely divorced from reality At face value, the rally in the copper price to above its pre-virus level suggests that the coronavirus pandemic has led to an overall improvement in the metal’s fundamental outlook. While a little... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update New LME data confirm aluminium stockpile overhang New data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) confirm our view that there has been an increase in off-exchange stocks this year, particularly for aluminium. Admittedly, there are limitations to... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The Siberian heatwave and commodities Unseasonably hot weather in Siberia in recent months has weighed on wheat production and damaged industrial infrastructure. Scientists think that future heatwaves in the region will become more common... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s opportunistic buying has run its course China’s commodity import volumes surged in June, while exports remained in the doldrums. We expect this trend to partially reverse in the coming months as higher commodity prices will curb bargain... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Five key questions about the EU’s hydrogen strategy The recent launch of the European Commission’s hydrogen strategy marks a step forward in the region’s decarbonisation push in which it hopes to use ‘green’ hydrogen in place of fossil fuels. We answer... 10th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Strong demand set to keep lumber prices high As the US economy continues to recover from virus-related disruption, we expect the housing and retail sectors to rebound. This, along with a stronger Canadian dollar and restricted supply (owing to... 9th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Still hard to be positive on lead in the long run We recently raised our price forecasts for base metals, including lead, as we now forecast a quicker economic rebound in China. And though we expect lead’s near-term price recovery to be driven by... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Libya will not determine prices The end of the port blockade in Libya should mean that the country’s oil production is restored, but we think that supply will be slow to return not least because of damage to facilities and weak... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Rising China PMIs good news for commodities China’s June PMIs indicated a continued improvement in domestic industrial activity, which should be positive for commodities. However, fading external demand may prove to be a headwind for exports. 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese imports add to evidence of stronger demand China’s import data are another sign that demand is bouncing back in the world’s largest metal consumer. However, in some cases, a lack of supply is restricting shipments. This is likely to become... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Sugar prices to tread water, amid ample supply Weak demand and a recovery in supply should push the sugar market into a surplus in 2020/21. As a result, we forecast that sugar prices will remain low over the coming year. 29th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Taking a look at our oil price forecasts In light of the recent revision to our China economic growth forecast and our expectation that the rebound in equities has further to run, we have revisited our oil price forecasts for the year ahead... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Revisiting our forecasts … Recent revisions to our macroeconomic and markets forecasts are more positive for industrial metals than oil, and they support our slightly bearish outlook for the price of gold. 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US-Canada aluminium spat could worsen oversupply Reports that the US is considering rescinding Canada’s exemption to its 10% tariff on aluminium this week are unlikely to have much of an impact on the metal’s price. But such moves have the potential... 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US gasoline demand will take time to fully recover Gasoline demand in the US is recovering from the coronavirus-related slump. However, we think that it will take some time before consumption fully returns to its pre-virus level. 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
