Industrial Metals Update A minor star called tin We have turned more positive on the outlook for the price of tin. China’s demand is coming back strongly after a virus-related slump and, in the more medium-term, tin will benefit from its heavy use... 19th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Launching our coal switching price indicator Our new coal switching price indicator (CSPI) shows that, in the UK and the Netherlands, power generation using natural gas is much more cost-effective than coal. While this has been true for a while... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Turning more positive on base metals We think that the recovery in equity prices has further to run, and now expect an even swifter economic rebound in China. Accordingly, we have raised our base metal price forecasts, which now show a... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Renewables take the shine off European fossil fuels The virus-related economic disruption has already dealt a huge blow to fossil fuel usage in European power generation. What’s more, we suspect that the transition towards renewables may be accelerated... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Precious Metals Update The surge in China’s PGM imports is misleading Soaring Chinese imports of platinum group metals (PGM) could be taken as a sign that end-use is racing back towards its pre-virus level. However, we think that higher imports merely reflect... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Fears of inflation unlikely to boost gold price This year’s rally in the gold price has come on the back of a coronavirus-led surge in safe-haven buying and a plunge in interest rate expectations. More recently, however, we suspect that the uptick... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Palm oil prices to drive higher Palm oil consumption will be hit hard by weak biofuel demand in 2020. However, we think that consumption will rebound strongly next season as higher biodiesel mandates incentivise more biofuel... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ is obviously worried about demand As expected, OPEC+ extended its 9.7m bpd production cut for another month (until end-July). Given that prices have rallied strongly in recent weeks, the group’s caution reflects the still-high level... 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports close to a trough Although China’s commodity imports volumes dropped in May, we expect the recent infrastructure-related fiscal support measures to lift domestic demand and commodity imports in the coming months. 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Natural rubber to regain some of its bounce by 2021 Consumption of natural rubber (NR) will be hit by sharply lower vehicle production this year. That said, we think that a revival in both demand and oil prices later in the year should give a lift to... 5th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ to extend duration of deeper output cuts OPEC+ is expected to meet in the next few days. Despite reports of rifts amongst its members, we think that it will agree to extend its current 9.7m bpd production cut for at least another month. 5th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Oversupply is far worse than exchange stocks suggest Exchange stocks are best used to judge the breadth of the downturn in metal demand, rather than the depth. With that in mind, we think that exchange stocks will help to tell us when demand for metal... 3rd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Newcastle coal prices to remain grounded Coal prices should receive their usual seasonal uplift later this year. Nevertheless, we think that the average price of Newcastle coal will fall in 2020 and 2021 owing to weak demand and strong... 3rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Slow rise in China PMIs no antidote for commodities China’s latest raft of PMIs showed a continued improvement in industrial activity in May, which is positive news for commodities demand. However, the pace of recovery remains slow. 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Are China’s smelters starting to struggle? So far, there is only limited evidence that a lack of raw material is constraining output at Chinese smelters. But we think that will change in the months ahead. In our view, output is still most... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Geopolitics take a back seat … for now Quarantine measures associated with COVID-19 have seen geopolitical disputes, such as US-Iran tensions, seemingly fall under the radar of energy traders. That said, the national security law imposed... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
