China Economics Focus Will China’s carbon pledges hold back its economic growth? China’s recent pledge to limit growth of carbon emissions is achievable without a major policy shift. Pressure is likely to rise on China to do more, but the high level of emissions relative to... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A new angle on Chinese growth A little-noticed report published last week by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) gives arguably the best estimate yet of how much China’s economy slowed at the end of last year and how rapidly it has... 7th August 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can China grow by 8% this year? Signs of recovery in China have bolstered confidence that the economy can achieve or beat the government’s target of 8% GDP growth in 2009. But we suspect that China is growing more slowly than the... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Surging bank loans not enough to save China China’s banks seem to be playing their part in financing the government’s stimulus plans. But the rest of the economic data is bleak. 12th February 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Could China end up making things worse in 2009? Developments in China’s economy will do little to support growth in the rest of the world next year and China’s policy response to the slowdown could even end up making things far worse. 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is China running out of steam after 30 years of reform? Thirty years after the launch of reform in China, the experience of Japan and the Asian tigers underlines the need for China to shift its economic model if it is to sustain rapid growth over the... 24th November 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China’s fiscal package may not be quite what it seems China’s announcement of a huge fiscal stimulus package is an attempt to shock and awe Chinese firms and households to keep spending. If it succeeds, the government will end up spending much less than... 10th November 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Markets are wrong about the renminbi Markets appear to have all but given up on the idea that the renminbi will appreciate against the dollar over the next year. But we find nothing in the data on China’s real economy or in the outlook... 11th September 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Will China still look as strong after the Olympics? For many, China enters a new era with the hosting of the Olympics. There is a growing sense that China is also going through an economic transition: a poor run of data has sparked questions over... 8th August 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Will China’s fuel subsidies be the next to go? High oil prices have forced a number of Asian countries to reform their fuel subsidy programmes in the last couple of weeks. China is by far the largest oil consumer in the region and matters far more... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How can China boost domestic demand? Rebalancing of China’s economy away from investment and heavy industry will require significant reform of the financial sector and of monetary policy, including higher (not lower) interest rates... 28th May 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What role can fiscal policy play in rebalancing China’s economy? Fiscal policy could make a significant contribution to reducing China’s massive current account surplus, though discussion of rebalancing often overlooks its potential. The government has the... 17th April 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What next for the renminbi? We expect the renminbi to rise by around 15% against the dollar this year (taking it to 6.20 yuan/$) and another 10% in 2009 (to 5.60). The faster pace of appreciation over the last few months has... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How worried should we all be about Chinese inflation? Chinese inflation is now at its highest in 11 years, and there seems little prospect of it falling much in the next couple of months. This has set alarm bells ringing in countries that have grown... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What should we expect from the US-China dialogue? The second meeting of the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue this week will be a test of US Treasury Secretary Paulson’s non-confrontational approach with China. We think he will be hard-pressed... 21st May 2007 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How worried should we be about Chinese stock markets? China’s stock markets are overvalued but perhaps not by as much as recent gains would suggest. The equity boom started when valuations were at a low level and, although shares now look pricey compared... 10th May 2007 · 1 min read
