China Economics Focus Where is China heading? China’s economic growth is more likely to slow over the next couple of years than to accelerate, with the property sector in particular appearing on the cusp of a correction. But policymakers have... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A Chinese hard landing: Which Asian countries are most at risk? A hard landing in China’s economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of Emerging Asia. A slump in Chinese demand would hurt economies with close trade links to China, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is consumption being undercounted? A growing number of economists are challenging the view that China invests too much and consumes too little by arguing that the official data grossly understate consumption and overstate investment... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How significant are China’s Third Plenum reforms? China's leaders unveiled a detailed and comprehensive plan to reform the economy at the end of last year. The early signs on implementation are encouraging. As a result, we think 2014 will be a... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What can we expect from the Third Plenum? Expectations that detailed new policies will be unveiled at the upcoming Third Plenum are likely to be disappointed. But the key gauge of success should instead be whether the leadership presents a... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How close is China to a crisis? China’s economy is set to slow further over coming years but we believe that the slump in growth many are now predicting will be avoided. 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Asia’s diverging growth prospects China’s Q2 GDP data underline the extent to which Asia’s economic landscape has shifted. We expect growth in China to continue to slow over the next couple of years. For India, the worst of the... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A brief primer on China's interbank market China’s cash crunch has shone a spotlight on its interbank market, which investors without a close interest in China’s banking and financial sector previously paid little attention to. In this month’s... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Why are China's banks stockpiling foreign exchange? With the People’s Bank determined to limit renminbi appreciation but reluctant to add to its foreign currency reserves, China’s commercial banks have taken on the role of the economy’s foreign... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is rapid credit growth in Asia something to be worried about? For emerging Asia as a whole, private sector credit as a share of GDP has surged over the past few years and is now at an all-time high, leading some commentators to suggest that the region could be... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Who will lead China? China’s once-in-a-decade leadership transition reaches a climax in November when a new generation takes control of the Party. In this China Watch, we ask who the key figures of the new leadership are... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Ten key questions about China’s property market China’s economic prospects depend in large part on what happens to its property market. In this Focus, we answer the key questions on affordability, empty housing and over-investment that will... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can we trust the data? Questions are again being asked about whether we can trust China’s economic data. Our attempts to track the speed of the economy using our China Activity Proxy do not support suggestions of widespread... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A primer on China’s PMIs China’s two manufacturing PMIs are now among the world’s most closely-watched pieces of economic data. In this Focus, we take a close look, highlighting which of the two indices and their components... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs? The economies of Asia and Latin America should be able to weather any financial contagion stemming from Europe’s debt crisis. But the economies of emerging Europe – notably Hungary, Turkey and the... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is investment-driven growth running out of steam? China’s investment-driven economic model is not showing signs of strain at present but growth is unlikely to be as smooth as most expect over the next few years. We have pencilled in a well-below... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
