China Economics Focus Emerging markets will not rescue the rest of the world Emerging market economies will continue to grow rapidly over the next few years. But with current account surpluses in most of Asia and among oil producers likely to remain high, this will not be of... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What lessons should China learn from Japan's lost decade? Today’s tensions between China and the US have many echoes of those between Japan and the US in the 1980s including, most clearly, over the exchange rate. The lesson for China is not, as some have... 8th November 2010 · 14 mins read
China Economics Focus Is China running out of cheap workers? China no longer has a surplus of underemployed workers in the countryside willing to move elsewhere for rock bottom wages, but it does still have a large and inefficient agricultural workforce. Their... 29th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is China shifting course? Fears that China is about to slam the brakes on its economy are overdone. Overheating is a far smaller threat than is commonly supposed and policy tightening will be implemented only slowly. 6th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can exporters cope with a stronger renminbi? Many low-end exporters have wafer-thin margins, but that doesn’t necessarily mean currency appreciation would be a threat to their survival. Talk that narrow margins are a major obstacle to currency... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How will China tighten? We expect China to raise interest rates and announce a series of required reserve ratio (RRR) hikes over the next few months, but this should not be interpreted as aggressive tightening. Indeed, the... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Where next for the renminbi? Recent comments from People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan make it likely that the renminbi’s dollar peg will remain in place a while longer. When it is loosened, the pace of gains will be slow. 8th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Will China’s carbon pledges hold back its economic growth? China’s recent pledge to limit growth of carbon emissions is achievable without a major policy shift. Pressure is likely to rise on China to do more, but the high level of emissions relative to... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A new angle on Chinese growth A little-noticed report published last week by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) gives arguably the best estimate yet of how much China’s economy slowed at the end of last year and how rapidly it has... 7th August 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can China grow by 8% this year? Signs of recovery in China have bolstered confidence that the economy can achieve or beat the government’s target of 8% GDP growth in 2009. But we suspect that China is growing more slowly than the... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Surging bank loans not enough to save China China’s banks seem to be playing their part in financing the government’s stimulus plans. But the rest of the economic data is bleak. 12th February 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Could China end up making things worse in 2009? Developments in China’s economy will do little to support growth in the rest of the world next year and China’s policy response to the slowdown could even end up making things far worse. 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is China running out of steam after 30 years of reform? Thirty years after the launch of reform in China, the experience of Japan and the Asian tigers underlines the need for China to shift its economic model if it is to sustain rapid growth over the... 24th November 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China’s fiscal package may not be quite what it seems China’s announcement of a huge fiscal stimulus package is an attempt to shock and awe Chinese firms and households to keep spending. If it succeeds, the government will end up spending much less than... 10th November 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Markets are wrong about the renminbi Markets appear to have all but given up on the idea that the renminbi will appreciate against the dollar over the next year. But we find nothing in the data on China’s real economy or in the outlook... 11th September 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Will China still look as strong after the Olympics? For many, China enters a new era with the hosting of the Olympics. There is a growing sense that China is also going through an economic transition: a poor run of data has sparked questions over... 8th August 2008 · 1 min read
