China Economics Focus How worried should we be about capital outflows? All of the increase in capital outflows from China last year was the result of a reduction in China’s foreign liabilities, largely driven by firms paying down external debt. By contrast, purchases of... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can China turn itself around? The inept response by China’s policymakers to the pressures of the last few months has rightly diminished confidence in their ability to handle the structural transition China faces in the years ahead... 17th February 2016 · 14 mins read
China Economics Focus Credit risks rising but crisis not imminent A renewed acceleration in credit growth has brought concerns about a Chinese debt crisis back to the fore. Investors are right to be worried: dealing with the unsustainable build-up of debt is one of... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is the service sector keeping China afloat? The answer to the question of whether China’s economy is sinking or swimming lies in its service sector. Some firms are thriving while others are struggling. Crucially though there is no evidence that... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What should we expect from China’s new Five-Year Plan? China’s leadership is likely to use its forthcoming Five-Year Plan to signal that it is not wavering on the need for structural reform. In fact, progress over the first three years of President Xi's... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China’s impact on the world Structural changes in China’s economy are transforming its economic relationship with the rest of the world, as domestic demand shifts from investment to consumption, outbound tourism surges and the... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Outlook for China has actually brightened The recent news on China's economy has been generally downbeat. But less attention has been paid to some encouraging structural shifts which mean that the risks of a slump in growth have diminished... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Five key questions about the renminbi After sharp gains against most other currencies over the past year, the renminbi is no longer clearly undervalued. But there is no strong reason to believe – as many now seem to – that the renminbi is... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What impact will the rate cut have, and what happens next? We foresee two more cuts in China's benchmark lending rates by the middle of next year but not the sizeable acceleration in credit that would be needed for a substantial pick-up in GDP growth... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Property to remain a drag despite looser mortgage controls Those hoping that a loosening of mortgage controls, announced by the People’s Bank yesterday, will set the stage for a recovery in the property sector are likely to be disappointed. Relatively tight... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is the level of borrowing costs in China a problem? Cuts to benchmark interest rates could end up doing more harm than good to China’s economy. Policymakers worried about elevated financing costs in the corporate sector would do better to focus on... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Where is China heading? China’s economic growth is more likely to slow over the next couple of years than to accelerate, with the property sector in particular appearing on the cusp of a correction. But policymakers have... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A Chinese hard landing: Which Asian countries are most at risk? A hard landing in China’s economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of Emerging Asia. A slump in Chinese demand would hurt economies with close trade links to China, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is consumption being undercounted? A growing number of economists are challenging the view that China invests too much and consumes too little by arguing that the official data grossly understate consumption and overstate investment... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How significant are China’s Third Plenum reforms? China's leaders unveiled a detailed and comprehensive plan to reform the economy at the end of last year. The early signs on implementation are encouraging. As a result, we think 2014 will be a... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What can we expect from the Third Plenum? Expectations that detailed new policies will be unveiled at the upcoming Third Plenum are likely to be disappointed. But the key gauge of success should instead be whether the leadership presents a... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
