China Economics Focus The 14th Five-Year Plan China’s new policy blueprint seeks above all to promote a large and hi-tech manufacturing sector, both as a defence against decoupling by the West and as a source of productivity gains. Policymakers... 15th March 2021 · 27 mins read
China Economics Focus Introducing our new China Activity Proxy (CAP) For over a decade, we have tracked the performance of China’s economy independently from the official GDP figures using our China Activity Proxy (CAP). We are now introducing a revamped version of... 10th September 2020 · 30 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s stimulus plans and the implications for growth The fiscal plans unveiled by China’s leadership today are as expansive as those in 2009 but credit growth will remain far more constrained. The focus again is overwhelmingly on measures to boost... 22nd May 2020 · 17 mins read
China Economics Focus The economic impact of the new coronavirus in China China’s economy is likely to contract sharply in the first quarter, as a result of the measures that have been taken to limit the spread of the new coronavirus. The apparent slowdown in new infections... 12th February 2020 · 16 mins read
China Economics Focus The Phase One deal and its impact on China The trade deal between the US and China marks an end to the first phase of the trade war. China’s pledges on imports from the US are unlikely to be met but that may not matter to the deal’s long-term... 15th January 2020 · 11 mins read
China Economics Focus China Property Handbook China’s property sector is central to its economic performance, its demand for many materials and the stability of its financial system. In this updated and expanded Handbook, we discuss the drivers... 9th December 2019 · 41 mins read
China Economics Focus Decoupling, and its impact on growth The rift that has widened between China and the US was caused by China’s emergence as a geopolitical competitor to the US, rather than the personality of Donald Trump. Decoupling will continue whether... 17th October 2019 · 20 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s next steps in the trade war China is left with few good options to hit back at the US in ways that wouldn’t be self-defeating. Rather than direct retaliation, officials are therefore likely to focus their efforts on broader... 5th August 2019 · 10 mins read
China Economics Focus Is the worst over for China? The domestic headwinds that have caused China’s economy to slow over the past year are abating thanks to the policy support that has put a floor under credit growth and fuelled local government... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What might trigger a hard landing? Structural headwinds will weigh on China’s growth rate over the coming decade. If well managed, this slowdown will be gradual. But a more abrupt adjustment shouldn’t be ruled out. We see two main... 16th May 2019 · 28 mins read
Global Economics Focus How will the rest of the world cope with 2% growth in China? Contrary to the mainstream view that China will keep growing at fairly rapid rates, we expect GDP growth there to slow to 2% by 2030. This slowdown need not in itself be bad for the rest of the world... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China Property Handbook China’s property sector is crucial to the economy’s performance and to China’s demand for many materials. In this updated and expanded Handbook, we discuss the drivers of the property cycle and answer... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Headwinds mount A trade spat with the US is one of a number of headwinds facing China’s economy over the coming year. They point to a slowdown not a slump. But the outlook further ahead is no better. Policymakers’... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus The coming slowdown in China China has had a stellar run during the past few decades, achieving sustained rates of growth only even previously seen in a handful of emerging economies. Most major forecasters expect this... 14th May 2018 · 24 mins read
China Economics Focus A refresher on China’s monetary policy framework With the People’s Bank last week tweaking the interest rates on its open market operations, it seems timely to highlight some of the peculiarities of China’s monetary policy framework. One key one is... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
