Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hot housing fires up policy debate If the housing markets in both Australia and New Zealand remain strong, then our forecasts that interest rates will fall to 1.0% in Australia and to 1.75% in New Zealand would look out of reach... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly First quarter good, second quarter not so good The leap in GDP in Australia in the first quarter doesn’t significantly alter the outlook for underlying inflation, especially if we are right in thinking that economic growth will drop back below the... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stuck in transition It always seemed unlikely to us that non-mining investment would seamlessly fill the hole left by the plunge in mining investment. This is especially the case when the economy is saddled with a large... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian government bonds to outperform US Treasuries Our forecasts that interest rates in Australia will remain low for longer than the markets expect while rates in the US will rise further than widely believed are consistent with government bonds in... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Evolution of inflation expectations in Australia is now key The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates to 1.75% and revise down its inflation forecasts is still causing waves, but what happens next largely depends on the evolution of... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Get used to low underlying inflation Our success in forecasting ahead of everyone else that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut interest rates below 2% is mainly because we realised that the legacy of a prolonged period of below... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia Budget Preview: Gambling with the AAA credit rating Treasurer Scott Morrison will put Australia’s AAA credit rating at risk in Tuesday’s Federal Budget by revealing a net rise in spending in an attempt to gain favour ahead of the probable election on... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pre-election spending splutter mostly a myth The idea that households and businesses postpone their spending ahead of a Federal election is more fallacy than fact. Admittedly, there is some evidence that the uncertainty generated by an election... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for inflation expectations in New Zealand? Since the sharp declines in inflation expectations were the main reason why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to 2.25% in March, future moves in inflation expectations will have a big... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Dollar crucial when domestic demand is slowing The Reserve Bank of Australia should be applauded for resuming its attempts to talk down the dollar as the evolution of the currency will have a crucial influence on the outlook for both economic... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is a debt crisis in Australia really just around the corner? We can’t rule it out completely, but recent suggestions that Australia is the second most likely country in the world to suffer a debt crisis and recession in the next one to three years seem... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recent resurgence in housing won’t last The resurgence in Australia’s housing market at the start of this year is already looking a bit tired. The delayed impact on activity from last year’s rises in mortgage rates, the recent deterioration... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Election and Census will further distort labour market data There is not enough evidence to conclude that the recent sharp slowdown in employment growth in Australia is due to fears over the health of the global economy rather than statistical noise. This year... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will rates in New Zealand fall below those in Australia? The recent interest rate cut in New Zealand and the dovish comments by the RBNZ now mean it is easy to imagine a scenario where interest rates in New Zealand fall below those in Australia. That would... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households help Australia outperform its peers Even though it has faced a very testing set of circumstances, Australia has continued to outperform most of its peers and hasn’t done too bad by its own standards either. A lot of the credit needs to... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the RBA losing the currency war? While it is a bit dramatic to suggest that a global currency war is underway, the falls in interest rate expectations in overseas markets relative to those at home explains why the Australian dollar... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
