Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solving Australia’s latest confidence conundrum Some simple but effective analysis proves that pretty much all of the recent rise in Australian business confidence relative to consumer confidence can be explained by the recent weakening in the... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will the lower dollar prevent further rate cuts? Since the recent sharp weakening in both the Australian and New Zealand dollars is being driven by the deteriorating economic outlook for each economy, the depreciating currencies are unlikely to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wider Australian trade deficit not that bad for Q2 GDP Since most of the recent sharp widening in Australia’s trade deficit is because commodity prices have reduced export values rather than due to outright falls in export volumes, net trade probably... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Can the strength of Australia’s labour market last? The Australian labour market appears to be coping surprisingly well with the end of the mining boom. However, we suspect that the recent data overstate the strength of the labour market. Moreover, if... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still has more work to do The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) repeated statements that it is still open to further rate cuts, depending on the incoming data, have not changed the view of some that 2.0% marks the floor for... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for New Zealand interest rates and the dollar? The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut rates to 3.25% leaves our prediction that rates will be 3.0% by the end of the year on track and has helped achieve one of our other... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy will soon run out of puff While the Australian economy may have shot out of blocks at the start of the year, there are good reasons to think that it will soon run out of puff. Indeed, April’s data suggest that the boosts to... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The markets don’t care whether Australia is AAA or AA It is possible that at some point in the next couple of years, Australia will lose its AAA credit rating. While this would be a huge blow for whichever political party is in power at the time, it... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget bounce in confidence will be short-lived The bounce in consumer confidence in Australia triggered by the Budget will probably be temporary and won’t prompt households to flock to the shops. Even a Budget-related increase in business... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget hits ball back into the RBA’s court The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Treasurer appear to be playing tennis with the economy. RBA Governor Stevens has already cut interest rates to 2.0% and hinted that he would like fiscal policy to... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growing pressure on RBNZ to join rate cutting club Last week’s news that the unemployment rate in New Zealand is not falling as widely expected and is rising as we thought it might has added to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s dilemma laid bare The Reserve Bank of Australia can’t have its cake and eat it. The only way to ensure that the Australian dollar weakens, which would support the real economy, is to reduce interest rates further, but... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the RBA losing faith in monetary policy? While we agree that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is right to conclude that monetary policy is less effective now than before the global financial crisis, we disagree with suggestions that this... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Ignore plunge in headline inflation, fret about the core We expect the consumer price data for the first quarter to show that headline inflation fell to 1% in Australia and to almost zero in New Zealand. Since these falls are due to the one-off effects of... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will Australian households rescue the economy? The apparent acceleration in consumption growth in the first quarter will boost hopes that, despite the end of the mining boom, the Australian economy will avoid a sharp slowdown. Unfortunately, the... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does an iron ore price of $50 mean for Australia? While it is certainly not good news, a fall in the iron ore price to US$50 a tonne or below is neither here nor there when compared with the drop from $US130 to $US70 last year. What’s more, the full... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
