Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households looking increasingly fragile The slump in real income growth has forced Australian households to reduce their saving rate to a nine-year low in order to continue increasing their spending. This can’t continue indefinitely... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What’s going on with mining? One recent data release showed that mining investment in Australia is still plunging while another suggested it has started to rebound. Both are technically right, as it all depends on how you measure... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How will New Zealand’s election affect its economy? The general election in New Zealand could have a bigger influence on the economy than seemed possible a few weeks ago. If National needs the support of NZ First to form a majority government then the... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where’s the cyclical rise in wage growth? If a cyclical rise in wage growth in Australia was underway, it would show up first in the strongest states and sectors. But wage growth hasn’t risen in New South Wales and Victoria. What’s more... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Business bonanza? The surge in business confidence in Australia has made us a little more upbeat on the outlook for business investment. But with households showing some signs of struggling, a bit more investment won’t... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy will become more boring The financial markets need to wake up to the fact that there is going to be fewer interest rate changes than in the past and more policy inertia. This is very much a global development, but the trend... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is inflation really just 1.9%? Most people are right to believe that their inflation rate is not 1.9% as the official ABS data show. As different people spend different shares of their income on different items than the ABS assumes... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Meteoric rise in the dollar will soon run out of fizz The recent rise in the Australian dollar to a two-and-a-half year high of just under US$0.80 has been meteoric. But while the dollar may orbit around that level for a bit, we don't think it will be... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What’s driving the divergence in confidence? The gap between consumer and business confidence has widened further in recent months as rising profits have made firms increasingly optimistic while subdued wage growth has kept households... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Household indebtedness weighs on the economic outlook The rising level of household debt in Australia presents a clear risk to the economic outlook and helps in part to explain why we expect the pace of consumer spending to slow this year. What’s more... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Slow wage growth to persist despite strong job growth While the recent run of positive news on the health of the Australian labour market is certainly encouraging, it doesn’t alter the bigger picture that there is still plenty of spare capacity. This... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly All Blacks to beat British Lions in economic tests If the relative performance of the economies of New Zealand and the UK/Ireland over the next few years is anything to go by, the All Blacks will beat the British & Irish Lions 2-1 in the rugby test... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Energy price hikes pile more pressure on households The utility bills of Australian households won’t rise by as much as the eye-watering 20% figure that has been catching the headlines as not all retailers have raised prices by that much and as prices... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households getting a smaller share of the pie The share of the national income going to Australian households is at an eight-year low and is within a whisker of a 50-year low. What’s more, households in Australia currently get a smaller share of... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Don’t panic about housing…at least not yet Most of the recent gloomy headlines on Australia’s housing market are simply because people are mistaking the normal soft patch after the Easter school holidays for something more worrying. When you... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A year of two halves The latest evidence suggests that the Australian economy entered a soft patch in the first half of the year, with the quarterly rate of GDP growth perhaps averaging only 0.3%. As some of this weakness... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
