Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth may soon pick-up If the recent improvement in Australia’s labour market is sustained, then wage growth will soon accelerate from its current 17-year low. An increase in productivity growth at the same time would keep... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A significant shift in borrowing trends The Reserve Bank of Australia will have been pleased to see more evidence that the housing market is cooling at the same time that the outlook for business investment is improving. If recent trends... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s clever little trick By highlighting the recent “firming” in activity at the same time as emphasising that there is scope to cut interest rates further, the Reserve Bank of Australia has managed to support confidence... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rugbynomics: New Zealand vs Australia It is surprising how the recent economic narrative for Australia and New Zealand is similar to the relative performance of the Wallabies and the All Blacks on the rugby field. If this continues, then... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation to play a more pivotal role in the policy debate Our forecast that underlying inflation in Australia will fall below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target range next year suggests that inflation will soon start to have a bigger influence on policy... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly LNG: Will the huge investment pay off? Australia is set to overtake Qatar as the world’s largest LNG supplier by 2018. However, recent trends in energy markets pose some headwinds for LNG exporters. In particular, the slump in oil prices... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Better news from China only a reprieve The rebound we expect in China over the next few quarters should come as a relief to Australian policymakers and many investors. But long-run prospects for iron ore demand, which makes up more than... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia outperforming other commodity producers While we remain concerned about the outlook for the Australian economy, we think it will continue to outperform other commodity producers such as Canada, Brazil and Norway. Australia’s labour market... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rising housing wealth cushioning equity price fall While we remain more concerned than most about the Australian economy, the latest fall in equity prices won’t significantly restrain consumption growth. There is plenty of scope for households to... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Higher US rates will be good for Australia & New Zealand A faster rise in interest rates in the US than widely expected next year will provide a welcome boost to the economies of Australia and New Zealand by leading to a further depreciation of their... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks to our interest rate forecasts While the risks to our forecast that the central banks of Australia and New Zealand will eventually reduce interest rates to new record lows of 1.5% and 2.0% respectively (from 2.0% and 2.75% now) are... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar has yet to find a floor Our view that the annual rate of GDP growth in Australia will slow further in the second half of the year suggests that the Australian dollar may yet weaken from its current six-and-a-half-year low of... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Glimmer of hope for investment While it is hard to describe any of the recent news on investment in Australia as “good”, the latest figures were not as bad as we had feared. In particular, the plunge in commodity prices does not... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How loose are monetary conditions in New Zealand? Our estimated Taylor Rule shows that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is keeping interest rates lower than current economic conditions would usually warrant in an effort to boost inflation. If... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will services exports fill the mining hole? While in the long-term we expect that services exports will play a big role in filling the hole in the economy left by mining, in the near-term the problem is that a lot of the boost to services... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Our take on the labour market puzzle While our analysis suggests that it is the surprising leap in the unemployment rate in Australia in July that is sending the false signal and not the surprising strength of employment growth, there... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read