Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Was the start of the year really that bad? With equity prices still more than 10% below last year’s highs, employment having contracted for two months in a row and leading economic indices slumping, a visitor from Mars would be forgiven for... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Coping well with the financial market malaise The resilience of both business and consumer confidence in Australia suggests that the latest sharp falls in equity prices are unlikely to lead to much weaker investment or consumption. This is mainly... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lies, damned lies and labour market statistics? At least some of the startling fall in the unemployment rate in New Zealand in the fourth quarter of last year, from 6.0% to 5.3%, appears genuine. As such, we no longer think that the unemployment... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tradables inflation is only half the story It’s odd that the financial markets placed so much emphasis on the rise in Australia’s tradables inflation rate in the fourth quarter of last year when this was more than offset by a fall in non... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will Australia join New Zealand in the near-deflation club? The higher starting point means that inflation in Australia is unlikely to fall close to zero, as it has done in New Zealand. That said, underlying or “core” inflation in Australia may soon follow in... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling petrol prices offer some comfort The latest falls in equity and commodity prices have not dealt a big blow to the Australian economy, especially when lower petrol prices are boosting households’ real incomes. Nonetheless, should... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China concerns wash away New Year cheer The first week of the new year has set the tone for what we think will be another disappointing year for Australia. While we are not too concerned by the latest developments in China, there is a clear... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons for 2016 from 2015 Our decent forecasting performance in 2015 means we are not too worried by some of our forecasts for 2016 being very different to the consensus. Our big success this year was accurately forecasting... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling further away from fiscal surplus In the upcoming fiscal update, the Australian Treasurer is going to have to admit that the cumulative budget deficit over the next four years is going to be some $30bn bigger than expected in May’s... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Net exports can’t carry the economy for long The Australian economy has continued to perform reasonably well given the very testing set of circumstances and has comfortably outperformed other commodity producers. But we don’t expect GDP growth... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hard to “chill out” when capex is collapsing Even though the recent comment by the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor that everyone should “chill out” was clearly said in jest, it looks a little misplaced when we have since found out that... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth may soon pick-up If the recent improvement in Australia’s labour market is sustained, then wage growth will soon accelerate from its current 17-year low. An increase in productivity growth at the same time would keep... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A significant shift in borrowing trends The Reserve Bank of Australia will have been pleased to see more evidence that the housing market is cooling at the same time that the outlook for business investment is improving. If recent trends... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s clever little trick By highlighting the recent “firming” in activity at the same time as emphasising that there is scope to cut interest rates further, the Reserve Bank of Australia has managed to support confidence... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rugbynomics: New Zealand vs Australia It is surprising how the recent economic narrative for Australia and New Zealand is similar to the relative performance of the Wallabies and the All Blacks on the rugby field. If this continues, then... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation to play a more pivotal role in the policy debate Our forecast that underlying inflation in Australia will fall below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target range next year suggests that inflation will soon start to have a bigger influence on policy... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
