Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would Trump mean for Australia & New Zealand? The economic outlook for Australia and New Zealand wouldn’t significantly worsen if Donald Trump became US President. Neither economy is particularly exposed to the threat of higher trade barriers... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks around our dollar forecasts Recent events have made our forecast that both the Australian and New Zealand dollars will weaken to around US$0.65 next year look aggressive. But while the risks to those forecasts lie on the upside... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Can the kiwi dollar rise to parity against the Aussie? The impressive performance of New Zealand’s economy in the second quarter has contributed to the strengthening in the New Zealand dollar towards parity with the Australian dollar. Our economic... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The secret fiscal stimulus An unusual surge in public demand drove the decent rise in GDP in Australia in the second quarter. However, with this support from the public sector unlikely to be sustained and few signs that other... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing auction rates provide only part of the picture Auction clearance rates are a timely and useful barometer of housing activity, but since they capture less than a third of all sales they don’t provide a full picture. While Australia’s housing market... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Household sector unlikely to offset weakness elsewhere Last week’s news that consumer confidence in Australia surged to a three year high provided an encouraging signal about the health of the household sector. However, while we expect consumption growth... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why wage growth will stay low While the latest data showed that employment growth has surged in Australia and New Zealand and the unemployment rate has edged down in both economies recently, this won’t be enough to generate... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would unconventional policy look like? We don’t currently believe that the RBA or RBNZ will have to resort to unconventional monetary policy to boost inflation, but one lesson of the past decade is that we should be prepared for the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar punishing the RBA The Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t done itself any favours by providing no real hints that interest rates will fall below 1.5%, as the resulting strengthening in the dollar will make it even harder... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bigger picture on inflation Australia’s inflation data for the second quarter provided something for everyone, but the bigger picture is that there is very little price pressure anywhere in the economy. This is why we believe... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Two things the RBA could learn from the RBNZ The recent experience of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand provides two lessons for the Reserve Bank of Australia. First, don’t dither when it comes to making decisions otherwise you’ll be punished by a... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The part-time problem Most of the rise in the share of people working part-time is due to long-term factors that have improved the flexibility of Australia’s labour market. However, some of it is due to weak economic... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why the AAA credit rating doesn’t matter While we doubt that the loss of Australia’s AAA credit rating would be followed by a rise in borrowing costs for the government, states and banks, it would nonetheless highlight that the burden to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households can cope with lower wealth Although the recent poor performance of equity prices means that household wealth may decline in the first half of the year, we doubt this will significantly restrain consumption growth. Households... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Does the absence of an easing bias rule out more rate cuts? The surprising lack of an easing bias in the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June policy meeting could be interpreted as a signal that interest rates have reached a floor. However, we don... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia need not fear a Brexit The sharp falls in equity prices in Australia in response to the rise in the chance that the UK may vote to leave the EU seem overdone. A Brexit is unlikely to be a disaster for the global economy... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
