Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Aug.) Inflation remained above the central bank’s target in August, but the fact that core inflation slowed has strengthened our view that policymakers will cut their key interest rate in November. 17th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7 in August, adding to the evidence that – despite the rebound in Q2 – the underlying pace of economic growth remains weak. 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) South African inflation slipped to just 4.0% y/y in July, supporting our view that policymakers will cut their policy rate from 6.50% to 6.25% in September. This is a strongly non-consensus view. 21st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s PMI rebounded to 52.1 in July, adding to signs that the economy gained pace in the middle of the year. Even so, headline growth over 2019 as a whole will be tepid, and we still expect... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jun.) South African inflation remained at the 4.5% mid-point of the target range in June, which strengthens our view that policymakers will follow up this month’s 25bp rate cut with another one in September... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Jun.) Inflation remained above the central bank’s target in June, but the fact that core inflation slowed has strengthened our view that policymakers will cut their key interest rate next week. 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked up in June, but it still points to a poor performance in Q2. While the survey sometimes provides misleading readings, its consistent weakness suggests growth... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jun.) Inflation remained at the 4.5% mid-point of central bank’s target range in May, providing the space for policymakers to support the economy by cutting their key interest rate next month. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (May) Nigerian inflation remained, at 11.4% y/y, above the central bank’s target range in May, but policymakers will probably still cut their key interest rate in July. 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Apr.) Manufacturing output jumped to a three-year high of 4.6% y/y in April. This provides the first sign that the economy returned to growth in Q2, thus dodging a technical recession. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped back to 45.4 in May, dampening hopes of a recovery after a weak Q1. The fall in the prices sub-component supports our view that the South African Reserve Bank... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) Inflation in South Africa decreased to 4.4% y/y in April due to weaker core price pressures. We think that the headline rate will continue on a downward trend over the rest of the year. Combined with... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Nigerian GDP growth slowed to 2.0% y/y in Q1, strengthening our view that the economy will perform worse than most expect over the course of 2019. We think that today’s weak result will encourage... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 in April, providing a rare reason for optimism about the sector. This supports our view that economic conditions will strengthen in Q2. 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Mar.) Inflation in South Africa picked up to 4.5% y/y in March due to petrol prices, but we think that it will soon ease. We’re sticking to our non-consensus view that policymakers will cut late this year. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Mar.) Inflation in Nigeria remained strong in March, and will probably stay above target over the coming months. Even so, we expect that will probably continue their controversial loosening cycle. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read