Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped again in March, suggesting that power cuts and soft demand weighed on the sector. Though the measure has a tendency to overstate the weakness of manufacturing... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb.) South African inflation stayed low in February, and while it will probably pick up over the coming months, it will remain within target. We hold the non-consensus view that the next move will be a cut... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed to 2.2% of GDP in Q4, but this was more due to weak demand than stronger exports. We expect that the shortfall will widen out again this year. 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) Growth in South Africa’s economy slowed to 1.4% q/q (saar) in Q4 of last year, but looser financial conditions and a likely fall in inflation mean the economy should strengthen over the course of this... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to 46.2 in February after rolling power cuts hit sentiment in the sector. But we doubt that the actual fall in activity will be as severe as the survey suggest. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jan.) South African inflation dropped by more than expected in January and is likely to fall further in the middle of the year, increasing the chances that the rate cuts that we expected in 2020 will be... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s economy accelerated to 2.4% y/y in Q4, but momentum in the non-oil sector remained very weak. Low oil prices will weigh on growth in 2019, but the longer-term outlook depends heavily on the... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Manufacturing PMIs in South Africa and Nigeria both pointed to weak growth in January. Forward-looking measures, however, support our view that growth in South Africa will pick up later this year. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in South African inflation in December adds to the evidence that the SARB’s much-heralded tightening cycle is now dead in the water. We expect that inflation will remain within target... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Nov.) November’s slowdown in manufacturing growth supports our view that GDP growth eased in Q4 after a very strong Q3. But activity still remained strong (by local standards) and we think that headline... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) Nigeria’s economy accelerated very slightly in Q3, but conditions remained very weak. Headwinds, including low oil prices, are still building, adding to the downside risks to our view that growth will... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) The larger-than-expected South African current account deficit in Q3, of 3.5% of GDP, adds to the reasons to think that the Reserve Bank will tighten monetary policy a little further in the next few... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy escaped recession in Q3, and the rebound was much stronger than we’d expected. But growth will probably soften in Q4 due to weaker agricultural growth and the imposition of... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The rebound in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI to 49.5 in November is the latest sign that the economy is now recovering following a very weak performance earlier this year. Even so, we think that... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) Last month’s rise in South African inflation was almost entirely due to fuel prices, so we still expect that the SARB will keep its key rate unchanged at its meeting tomorrow. 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Sep.) South African manufacturing and mining data for September released today support our view that the economy pulled out of recession in Q3, but that growth was very weak. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read