Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy escaped recession in Q3, and the rebound was much stronger than we’d expected. But growth will probably soften in Q4 due to weaker agricultural growth and the imposition of... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The rebound in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI to 49.5 in November is the latest sign that the economy is now recovering following a very weak performance earlier this year. Even so, we think that... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) Last month’s rise in South African inflation was almost entirely due to fuel prices, so we still expect that the SARB will keep its key rate unchanged at its meeting tomorrow. 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Sep.) South African manufacturing and mining data for September released today support our view that the economy pulled out of recession in Q3, but that growth was very weak. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is probably overestimating the weakness of the manufacturing sector, which we think continued to recover in October. Flattering base effects created by the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Sep.) South African inflation stabilised in September remaining unchanged at 4.9% y/y. We think that inflation has peaked and expect that the SARB will keep its key rate on hold at next month’s policy... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Nigerian inflation remained essentially unchanged in September, which supports our view that – despite recent hawkish language – policymakers will leave their key rate on hold over the coming months. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Aug.) Manufacturing figures released today supported our view that the economy exited recession in Q3. But growth probably remained weak by historical standards, which we think will forestall rate hikes. 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The continued fall of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September underlines the fact that conditions remained tough in Q3. While we think the economy probably exited recession, growth was very weak... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) South African inflation slowed to 4.9% in August, which supports our view that policymakers at the SARB will leave their key rate on hold at 6.50% at their meeting tomorrow. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected growth in South African manufacturing recorded in July suggests that the economy made a good start to Q3. But more timely surveys indicate that this momentum hasn’t been... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) The improvement in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q2 should help to ease concerns about the country’s external financing needs and provide some support to the rand. Coming alongside the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) South Africa’s economy formally entered recession in Q2 driven by another poor performance from the agricultural sector. We expect the economy to embark on a recovery over the rest of this year, but a... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The collapse in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August may partly reflect a deterioration in sentiment related to the turmoil in EM financial markets last month. Even so, the data provides an... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) July’s stronger-than-expected inflation was almost entirely due to sharp rise in fuel costs. Core inflation remained stable, and we think that the SARB will keep policy on hold this year. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Uganda Interest Rates Policymakers at the Bank of Uganda kept the policy rate unchanged at their meeting this morning and we don’t expect any rate cuts for the remainder of this year. 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
