Africa Data Response

South Africa CPI (Jan.)

South African inflation jumped to the 4.5% y/y midpoint of policymakers’ target range in January, which strengthens our view that the current easing cycle will end after just one more cut.

19th February 2020 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria CPI (Jan. 2020)

The further rise in Nigerian inflation in January, to 12.1% y/y, suggests that border closures have continued to drive up food prices. This will limit the central bank’s scope to lower interest rates...

18th February 2020 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing (Dec.)

The South African manufacturing sector’s terrible performance in December has set up a weak start to 2020. And, given that power cuts lasted into January, problems in the sector probably continued.

11th February 2020 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped further in January, adding to the evidence that the economy remained very weak at the start of 2020.

3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa CPI (Dec.)

South African inflation strengthened in December, and we expect that it will continue to do so in Q1, bringing the current monetary easing cycle to an end after just one more 25bp rate cut.

22nd January 2020 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI edged lower in December, adding to the evidence that the economy remained weak in Q4 and raising the prospect of another technical recession.

8th January 2020 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria CPI (Nov.)

Nigerian inflation picked up again in November, driven mostly by rising food inflation. We think that the headline rate will continue to climb over the coming months and that policymakers will leave...

17th December 2019 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa CPI (Nov.)

South African inflation stayed very weak in November, but petrol prices will push up the headline rate in December. Despite a flagging economy, we doubt that the SARB will cut its key policy rate...

11th December 2019 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped again in November, adding to the evidence that the economy remained weak in Q4.

2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Interest Rate

Nigerian policymakers left their key rate unchanged today, preferring to use unconventional policy rather than rate cuts to boost the economy. We suspect that most of these measures will fail...

26th November 2019 · 3 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria GDP (Q3)

Nigeria’s non-oil economy strengthened a touch in Q3, but headline growth remained very weak. Without significant policy change, we expect that the economy will continue to struggle in 2020.

22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa CPI (Oct.)

Weak inflation figures have increased the risk of another rate cut at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. But with inflation set to pick up over the coming months, we expect that the rate will remain on hold.

20th November 2019 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

Nigeria CPI (Oct.)

Food prices pushed up Nigerian inflation in October, suggesting that policymakers will leave their key rate on hold next week. Monetary conditions will probably still be loosened using unconventional...

18th November 2019 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing (Sep.)

Manufacturing output fell further than expected in September, adding to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted over Q3. And a key business survey pointed to continued weakness in early Q4...

7th November 2019 · 2 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI came in at 48.1 in October, which wasn’t as bad as most analysts had feared. But the measure still suggests that the economy has remained weak in recent months.

1st November 2019 · 2 mins read