Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI survey – which jumped to 50.8 in February – supports our view that the economy is gaining momentum. Nigerian surveys released yesterday were less positive. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2017) The weaker-than-expected pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth in Q4, to 1.9% y/y, masked an encouraging improvement in the non-oil sector. There are signs that the recovery gathered pace at the start of... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The continued recovery of South Africa’s PMI – which rose to 49.9 in January – supports our view that the economy is in the early stages of a cyclical recovery. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Dec.) South African inflation edged up to 4.7% in December, but we expect that price pressures will ease in 2018. The next interest rate move will be a cut, though we think this will come after a long pause... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) Nigerian inflation slipped to a 15-month low in December. We expect that policymakers will keep rates on hold in January and March, but will cut rates by 100bp in May as inflation eases further. 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) The narrowing of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q3 (which slipped to 2.3% of GDP) and the weakening of inflation should ease pressure on the South African Reserve Bank to tighten policy. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining production Mining production rose by a stronger-than-expected 5.2% y/y in October. This provides the first solid sign that the economy retained momentum as it entered the fourth quarter. 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI The small pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month, coming on the back of an improvement in October, suggests that the sector’s slump eased further in Q4. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) The decline in South African headline inflation last month, to 4.8% y/y, and softening core price pressures may temper expectations in the market for interest rate hikes in the next few months. But... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3 2017) The weaker-than-expected pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth in Q3, to 1.4% y/y, was driven entirely by a rebound in oil production, while the non-oil sector weakened. We don’t think these data will affect... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Last month’s Nigerian inflation reading of 15.9% y/y means that, although the central bank has signalled that it intends to cut interest rates, this is unlikely to come at next week’s meeting. We... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recovered a bit in October, but remained very low. Given that it has overstated the weakness of the economy in recent quarters, we wouldn’t read much into today’s... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) Inflation in South Africa was weaker than expected in August, which supports our view that the South African Reserve Bank will cut its key policy rate from 6.75% to 6.50% at its meeting tomorrow. 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug.) Nigerian inflation remained high in August, but we expect that it will ease over the coming months, prompting policymakers to cut interest rates. 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) South Africa’s current account deficit was wider than expected in Q2, at 2.4% of GDP, but the big picture is that it has narrowed significantly over the past 18 months. The slightly wider shortfall is... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (July) South African mining data for July were weaker than expected but, taken together with the manufacturing figures also released today, it looks like the economy may have strengthened a little at the... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read