Our working assumption is still that the Fed will end up raising the fed funds rate three times this year, taking it to a range of between 0.75% and 1.00% by year-end. But we wouldn't be completely flabbergasted if the Fed only hiked twice. Where we differ more substantially from the Fed and the markets is our expectation that the fed funds rate will rise much more rapidly next year, reaching nearly 3.0% by end-2016.
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