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Buoyant economy to prompt only minor change in tone

Having announced a plan to buy assets at a reduced pace of €30bn per month from January until September 2018 after its last meeting, the ECB seems very unlikely to make any changes this month. It should confirm that corporate bonds will make up a greater share of its asset purchases next year as it approaches limits to its government bond holdings. And it may offer some very tentative hints that net purchases are unlikely to continue into 2019. But with core inflation still very weak, the forward guidance that interest rates will be on hold until well after asset purchases have ended will be unchanged.

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