ECB Watch

ECB Watch provides expert analysis on the European Central Bank's next moves. Published before each ECB meeting, it offers insights into how policymakers may respond to economic shifts and guide eurozone interest rates. ECB Watch is part of our broader suite of data, analysis, and economist engagement services designed to keep investors ahead of the curve.

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ECB Watch

“Dovish” 25bp rate cut likely next week

While there is a strong case for the ECB to accelerate the pace of policy easing by delivering a 50bp cut next week, a majority of the Governing Council seems to prefer 25bp, which would bring the...

5th December 2024 8 mins read

ECB Watch

Quarter-point cuts will keep on coming

A 25bp interest rate cut looks nailed on next week, taking the deposit rate down to 3.25%. Christine Lagarde is likely to reiterate that policymakers expect to reduce rates further but avoid...

10th October 2024 7 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB will keep to steady 25bp cuts

The ECB looks certain to cut its deposit rate from 3.75% to 3.5% next week and policymakers will probably signal that they expect to reduce rates only gradually in the coming quarters. President...

6th September 2024 8 mins read

ECB Watch

Interest rates on hold amid strong price pressures

The ECB is likely to leave the deposit rate on hold at 3.75% next week and refrain from any explicit guidance about the future path of interest rates. The continued strength of wage growth and...

11th July 2024 8 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB to cut rates at 6th June meeting, then pause

Having agreed to do so at their last meeting, we think the ECB Governing Council will go ahead and cut the deposit rate by 25bp next week, to 3.75%. As the recent inflation data have been a bit higher...

31st May 2024 8 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB preparing the ground for rate cuts in June

Next week, we expect the ECB to signal clearly that as long as economic developments are broadly in line with official forecasts, it will cut interest rates in June. There is a decent case for a 50bp...

4th April 2024 8 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB won’t cut rates until June (at the earliest)

Next week’s ECB meeting looks set to be a fairly predictable one (famous last words…) in which policymakers leave interest rates unchanged and say they want more evidence that inflation is subsiding...

1st March 2024 7 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB to push back against early rate cut bets

The ECB is certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week, leaving the deposit rate at 4%, and we expect Christine Lagarde to push back against expectations for rate cuts in the first half of this...

18th January 2024 7 mins read

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