The near-term economic impact of Friday night’s attempted coup in Turkey will depend on the length and severity of market dislocation, but at the very least the economy is likely to suffer a period of slower growth, and the lira will remain under pressure. The longer-term economic repercussions will hinge on the political fallout. While it’s still too soon to draw firm conclusions, the early signs are that it may result in a further centralisation of power in the presidency, which could ultimately lead to a slower and more volatile growth path.
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