The government budget for 2015, that was signed by President Putin today, is based on a range of outdated assumptions. Based on current spending plans, we reckon the government is likely to run a budget deficit of 2.0% of GDP in 2015 rather than 0.6% of GDP as forecast in the current plans. The shortfall is likely to be financed through a combination of drawing down savings from the Reserve Fund and by the issue of local currency debt.
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