Fears that Western intervention in Syria could increase the risks of a broader Middle East conflict have already put some upward pressure on the price of Brent crude. However, even if tensions do continue to rise (which all the major players would want to avoid), we would expect any fallout for global oil markets to be more than offset by the prospect of releases from the vast strategic reserves held by the US and its allies. Indeed, G8 leaders meeting this week might remind the markets of that option. In the meantime, the election of a (relatively) reformist President in Iran provides at least some hope that another source of geopolitical risk may ease soon.
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