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Gasoline price jump to drive CPI inflation above 7%

The unexpected further jump in gasoline prices, reflecting a sharp widening of refiners’ margins, means we now expect headline CPI inflation to rise above 7% in May. While the rise in refiners’ margins presents an upside risk to our inflation forecasts over the rest of 2022, we expect this to be largely offset by the impact of a fall in house prices on shelter inflation.

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