The latest Bank of Canada surveys support our view that falling business investment, particularly in the oil and gas sector, will weigh on the economy in the second half of the year. Making matters worse, non-energy exports have barely risen at all in recent months, even though domestic manufacturers have enjoyed a massive boost from the dollar’s depreciation over the past 18 months. Indeed, we learned this week that non-energy exports fell further in May, continuing the sharp downward trend since the temporary spike earlier this year.
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