Data published over the past month provided further evidence that economic growth in the region was very sluggish towards the end of last year. Q3 GDP figures did, admittedly, show that growth picked up a bit in Ghana and Botswana. But growth slowed in Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda. Figures for Q4 have yet to be released, but the available data suggest that growth in the region’s three largest economies faltered at the end of last year. Our GDP Tracker suggests that South Africa’s economy stagnated in the three months to November, while oil output in Nigeria fell sharply at the end of the year, indicating that its economy continued to contract. Angola releases little timely data, but weak oil output and rumblings of problems in local banks point towards continued subdued activity. Growth is likely to pick up in most African economies in 2017, but we don’t expect a quick recovery.
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