Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Broadening price pressures to prompt rate hikes RBA Governor Lowe noted in a recent speech that the Bank no longer has specific criteria for deciding whether inflation is sustainably in the target range. But he highlighted that along with the... 7th March 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Producers riding oil high? A win for SA public finances Oil prices have surged this week, but Africa’s main oil exporters – Nigeria and Angola – are unlikely to reap the full benefits due to persistent oil output problems and the mounting costs of fuel... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Surging commodity prices & Argentine subsidies The recent surge in commodity prices has given a boost to most Latin American currencies and it is generally seen as good news for the region. But not all economies will benefit. Chile's external... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Ukraine war stokes inflation, reduces growth The war in Ukraine has prompted us to revise our forecasts for euro-zone GDP, inflation and monetary policy. Russia’s downturn in 2015 had no obvious impact on euro-zone GDP and Russia has become less... 4th March 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia plunges into economic & financial turmoil Russia has fallen into chaos and we’ll get a clearer sense next week of the impact that sanctions are having on the economy. A dollar bond repayment by Gazprom on Monday will be a litmus test of the... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Policy headache in Thailand, Korea’s election Inflation has become a major policy headache for the Bank of Thailand after figures released today showed that the headline rate surged to a 14-year high in February. Given the weakness of the economy... 4th March 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics One week on, how has the war in Ukraine moved the dial? The further escalation of the war in Ukraine this week, which resulted in tighter economic sanctions on Russia and renewed surges in commodity prices, has increased the upside risks to inflation and... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revising down our euro-zone GDP forecasts The ratcheting-up of sanctions on Russia and the further surge in commodity prices this week mean we are revising down our euro-zone growth forecast for 2022. Exports to Russia will collapse while... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2021) The stronger-than-expected 0.5% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q4 was mainly a result of turnaround in the agricultural sector, which is unlikely to be sustained. And in the meantime, high-frequency... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The small rise in retail sales in January, after a steep fall in December, suggests that Omicron remained a drag on consumption. Although spending will have rebounded in February, higher energy prices... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hong Kong underlines risks of zero-COVID opening Mainland China and Hong Kong both have high vaccination rates in aggregate. But they share a common weakness in having few of their elderly vaccinated. A surge in deaths in Hong Kong is now... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ may get less dovish, GDP to fall in Q1 PM Kishida’s two new Bank of Japan policy board nominations could push the Bank in a slightly less dovish direction, but it won’t make much difference to policy decisions over the next year. A more... 4th March 2022 · 5 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Feb.) The rebound in India’s February PMIs suggests that activity is bouncing back as the Omicron outbreak subsides. And we think that there’s still significant scope for the economy to grow rapidly over... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will tighten soon as economy overheats Australia’s strong rebound from the Delta lockdowns left output quite close to its pre-virus trend. And with consumption holding up during the recent Omicron wave, we think GDP will return to that... 4th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Suez Canal toll hike, Moroccan drought Oil prices have risen even further since yesterday's OPEC+ meeting as investors’ concerns about disruptions to oil supplies from Russia mount. If sanctions are imposed on Russia's energy exports... 3rd March 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Oil rally to help Colombia’s twin deficits The recent surge in oil prices means that Colombia’s twin current account and budget deficits are unlikely to be a major concern over the next couple of quarters. However, it will still require a... 3rd March 2022 · 5 mins read