Europe Economics Focus How big is the threat of an end to Russian gas exports? An end to Russian gas exports to Europe would prompt us to forecast a deeper recession in the euro-zone this winter than we currently anticipate. The hit would come partly through higher inflation... 9th August 2022 · 21 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand... 9th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics How much does Taiwan matter? Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update End of the EM tightening cycle creeping closer While DM central banks are currently raising interest rates in earnest, the past week has brought signs that tightening cycles are now nearing an end in parts of the emerging world. Indeed, with... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Output will return to pre-virus trend eventually With a record virus wave sweeping across the country and consumer confidence slumping, we’re slashing our forecast for Q3 consumption growth from 0.8% to 0.2%. While the government has refrained from... 8th August 2022 · 10 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jul.) Exports held up well last month, thanks to a backlog of orders still being cleared. But it won’t be long before shipments drop back on cooling foreign demand. Meanwhile, imports continued to trend... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s creditors pledge debt relief, Kenya’s elections News that Zambia’s official creditors agreed to provide debt relief is certainly encouraging and will unlock IMF funding. But the terms of the deal remain unknown, leaving in doubt that the country’s... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats pivot to fiscal tightening Alongside Pelosi's visit to Taiwan this week, the recently-passed Chips and Science Act is another illustration of the slow-motion decoupling that is developing between the US and China. The modest... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What the BoE told us and what it didn't We have been saying for some time that despite a recession, the Bank of England would be forced to raise interest rates. The Bank of England's signal that it is stepping up the fight against high... 5th August 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The unexpected acceleration in non-farm payroll growth in July, together with the further decline in the unemployment rate and the renewed pick-up in wage pressures, suggests the economy is still a... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: elections no cure for economic woes Kenya’s general election scheduled for Tuesday is set against a challenging economic backdrop, and no matter the winner, the country’s outlook is likely to remain overshadowed by large macroeconomic... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Lift-off for the Bank of Thailand Thailand is one of the few countries in the region not to have raised interest rates this year, but that looks set to change on Wednesday. We, along with the majority of other analysts, are expecting... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Taiwan tensions add impetus to decoupling If China’s military drills off the coast of Taiwan end, as scheduled, on Sunday and there is no further retaliation, this week’s flare-up in tension won’t have a direct economic impact. But it will... 5th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for recession, ECB using PEPP flexibility The activity data published this week add to the evidence that the economy is heading for recession. Meanwhile, the ECB published data showing the degree of flexibility that it has applied to its PEPP... 5th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly What's Danish for the "canary in the coal mine"? Denmark’s manufacturing PMI fell precipitously from 70.0 to a 27-month low of 38.0 in July. While Denmark's PMI is extremely volatile, this was its largest fall since 2008. And given that Denmark is a... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
