Emerging Europe Economics Focus Four years of war: stagnation grips Russia’s economy Russia’s economy has proven remarkably resilient since the war in Ukraine began four years ago, underpinned by military-related stimulus, an ability to adapt to Western sanctions and disciplined... 23rd February 2026 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru ousts another president, Colombia rebalancing? The ousting of Peru's President Jerí this week will have limited immediate economic implications given that Peru's balance sheet is strong. But political instability - which is unlikely to go away... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Dec. 2025) The unchanged level of retail sales volumes in December confirms that they fell over the quarter a whole, which would have dragged down goods consumption and contributed to the likely weak result for... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q4 2025) The government shutdown ended up being a much bigger drag on the economy than the Treasury’s data had suggested, with fourth-quarter GDP growth slowing to 1.4% annualised. Federal expenditure... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (February 2026) India’s economic growth won’t match the pace of 2025 over the next couple of years, but India will remain a global outperformer. Prospects have brightened further as punitive US tariffs have come down... 20th February 2026 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Economy to plod along in the Year of the Horse Tuesday marked the first day of the Year of the Horse. Horse years are traditionally seen as years of energy and forward momentum but, with policymakers unlikely to loosen the reins much on fiscal... 20th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly BoI meeting amid Iran tensions, CEE rates, Rubio’s visit Data out of Israel over the past week have increased the probability that the Bank of Israel (BoI) will cut interest rates at its meeting next Monday, but the decision may depend on how tensions with... 20th February 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Feb. 2026) February’s flash PMIs provides further signs of an encouraging start to the year for economic activity and suggests that inflationary pressures in the services sector increased a bit further. While we... 20th February 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jan. 2026) The big reduction in public borrowing and surge in retail sales in January support other evidence that the economy started the year looking a lot healthier. This will give the Chancellor something... 20th February 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India’s AI summit meets the “AI scare trade” The optics of this week's AI Impact Summit in New Delhi were powerful, but the timing was awkward. India’s business consulting and software firms have been major casualties in the global equity sell... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Looser fiscal policy has yet to manifest itself The large supplementary budget passed in November provided no discernible boost to public spending last quarter, which supports our long-held view that the government only recorded a minuscule budget... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 26) With the composite PMI rising to a three-year high in February, the recent sluggishness in economic activity should be followed by a marked recovery in the first half of this year. 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Glittering TSX unlikely to boost consumption by much There does not appear to have been any meaningful wealth effects on consumption from the skyrocketing TSX, partly because households have faced offsetting falls in house prices. We expect the TSX to... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Dec 2025) The equal sized gains in export and import volumes in December confirm that net trade made a positive contribution to fourth-quarter GDP. However, looking through the volatile components that drove... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Switzerland to lead Europe on AI While we think it will take several years before AI has a meaningful impact on Europe’s economies, Switzerland may be an exception. There is already some evidence of a positive boost from AI. And we... 19th February 2026 · 3 mins read
