Japan Economics Weekly Nascent virtuous cycle raises risk of policy tightening Inflation continues to run well ahead of wage growth and we're sticking to our forecast that the resulting fall in real incomes will force consumers to tighten their belts over the coming months. With... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi sporting focus, Egypt dollar draw, Tunisia loan Saudi Arabia’s Pro League went from the back pages to the front pages this week after Al-Hilal record bid for PSG’s Kylian Mbappé. While the news has put renewed attention on the Kingdom’s sporting... 27th July 2023 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q2) The 2.4% annualised gain in second-quarter real GDP growth, which means the economy expanded at close to its potential pace over the first half of the year, suggests that higher interest rates are... 27th July 2023 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery goes into reverse Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy contracted in June as the service sector spluttered. Policy support means the economy should return to growth before long. But the pace of... 27th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB won’t start cutting rates until H2 2024 Tighter monetary policy has had a big impact on financial conditions in the euro-zone, but we think its effect on activity is still in its early stages. Even if the region falls into a mild recession... 26th July 2023 · 20 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data point to recession Data released this week show that tighter monetary policy has led to a sharp slowdown in money and lending growth, consistent on past form with falling GDP. Together with the latest business surveys... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s judicial reforms present key downside risks The Israeli government’s decision to press ahead with its controversial judicial reforms won’t necessarily cause foreign investment into Israel to dry up, but the direction of policymaking threatens... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (July) The bigger-than-expected fall in the German Ifo, together with the drop in the PMIs published yesterday, suggest that the German economy continued to shrink at the start of Q3. We expect the recession... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Investment growth entering a softer patch Investment held up well in the first half of the year but the recent moderation in credit growth and the messages from the latest survey data suggest that it is going to enter a softer patch over the... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: GDP data worse than it looks GDP growth in Korea rebounded in the second quarter, but the data was far worse than it looks, with all of the major sub-components contracting. With weak global demand set to drag on exports and high... 25th July 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China and Japanification: How great is the risk? China is not suffering a balance sheet recession: most private firms are not highly indebted and would borrow if they had more confidence in the economic outlook. But there are other parallels with... 24th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy may only spend a quarter of EU Recovery Fund Italy has already accumulated so many delays in spending NextGenerationEU money that it will only be able to use a fraction of the funds and any boost to growth is likely to be much smaller than hoped... 24th July 2023 · 6 mins read
