China Chart Pack Financial flows, not trade, leading CNH expansion The renminbi surpassed the US dollar to become the most-commonly-used currency in China’s cross-border transactions for the first time last month. Part of the increase – the part that has received... 27th April 2023 · 11 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 ) The disappointing 1.1% annualised rise in first-quarter GDP indicates that the economy had less forward momentum at the start of this year than previously thought. We continue to expect the drag from... 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Apr.) The EC’s economic sentiment indicator for April remained consistent with the economy expanding at the beginning of Q2. It also suggests that price pressures (though easing) remain high and that labour... 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe generally fell slightly in April, with our regional measure declining for the first time in six months. On past form, the... 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q1) News that the Swedish economy expanded slightly in Q1, and thereby narrowly avoided a recession, adds to the evidence that economic activity in Europe as a whole has held up well in Q1. That said, we... 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Monetary policy stance slowly shifting The raft of inflation data over the past couple of weeks will have provided some relief for Latin American central banks, with headline rates in most countries now on a clear downward trajectory. In... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why has Spain’s economic recovery been weak? Spain’s underperformance since the pandemic can be explained in part by the incomplete recovery in its tourism sector and in part by the sharp fall in real household disposable incomes. That said, we... 26th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Housing turnaround makes the Bank’s job harder House prices edged up in March and the sharp rise in the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests there are further gains to come. As the improvement has been driven mainly by a collapse in new listings... 26th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation past the peak, but big challenges lie ahead Inflation has finally turned a corner. Headline inflation rates fell in March in all 14 economies that we cover, the first synchronised drop in more than a decade. This partly reflects base effects... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 3.2% m/m jump in durable goods orders in March mainly reflects a stronger-than-expected gain in the more volatile commercial aircraft component, with the details suggesting that first-quarter... 26th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack IMF deals in choppy waters Balance of payments strains have prompted Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia to turn to the IMF over the past six months or so, but agreements in Egypt and Tunisia are faltering. The IMF postponed its first... 26th April 2023 · 12 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Q1 surge will push 2023 growth over 8% Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that the economy bounced back rapidly in Q1, with growth since the start of the pandemic now broadly back in line with the official GDP data. And while the... 26th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1) GDP in Korea rose slightly during the first quarter of the year but we think the economy faces a difficult year ahead as high interest rates and weak external demand weigh on output. 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
