China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP contracted in q/q terms in Q2, underperforming most expectations. A sharp fall in government spending and further struggles in the trade logistics sector more than outweighed a... 31st July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) and HICP (July) July’s inflation data will have been a disappointment for policymakers as, although headline inflation fell in line with expectations, core inflation was unchanged at 5.5% and services inflation... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italy GDP (Q2 2023) The drop in GDP in Italy in Q2 means euro-zone output probably rose by 0.3% q/q in Q2, and just 0.1% if Ireland is excluded. Italy is no longer outperforming its peers and we think it will experience... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 2023, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the economy fell into a technical recession on the back of oil output cuts, whereas the non-oil economy continued to post robust growth. With the Kingdom... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Jul.) The PMI surveys suggest that China’s economic recovery continued to lose momentum in July. Downward pressure on manufacturing intensified, construction activity decelerated sharply, and services... 31st July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Data dependence spells the end for Fed tightening This week’s FOMC meeting brought hints that Fed officials are no longer wedded to previous plans for further policy tightening. Even if activity growth continues to hold up a bit better than expected... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly September hike requires upside surprise The Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations highlighted the Bank’s concern that inflation could become stuck above the 2% target. Although headline inflation faces a bumpy downward path over the... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore labour market cools, Taiwan rate cut delayed Labour market and inflation figures for Singapore published this week support our view that the central bank (MAS) will loosen policy at its October meeting. Meanwhile, we have changed our Taiwan... 28th July 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Politburo keeps stimulus hopes alive The highlight of the week was Monday’s Politburo meeting, which struck a dovish tone and promised greater policy support. A lot will depend on the follow-through, and in this note we flag some areas... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q2 resilience unlikely to last, but inflation to stay high National data released so far suggest that euro-zone GDP rose in Q2, but with activity surveys very weak in July and the full effect of monetary tightening still to be felt, we continue to expect GDP... 28th July 2023 · 10 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (May) Despite the rebound in GDP in May, growth in the second quarter looks set to be weaker than expected. With some of the factors supporting GDP set to unwind, third-quarter growth is also likely to come... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (July) The small fall in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in July leaves it consistent on past form with output stagnating and suggests that, despite the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data reported... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun. 23) June’s activity data were broadly positive for Q2, with both the industrial production and capital goods shipments data suggesting the economy expanded at a decent pace. However, firms’ forecasts for... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany GDP (Q2 2023) National data released so far suggest that the euro-zone economy held up better than we had anticipated in Q2, with Germany still the laggard among major economies. We continue to think that monetary... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
