UK Economics Chart Pack Resilient, but recession still likely Recent data suggest the economy’s resilient end to 2022 was sustained at the start of this year. But while the worst of the falls in real household incomes are in the past, we still think around two... 5th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Drought to push Argentina’s economy into deep recession The historic drought afflicting Argentina will cause a steeper contraction in GDP than most expect this year and intensify balance of payments strains by reducing export earnings to the tune of 2-3%... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMIs suggest that the economy expanded in Q1. They also point to further gains in employment and strong price pressures. With the turmoil in the banking sector having stabilised, this makes us... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will send New Zealand into recession The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 50bp, to 5.25%, came as an upside surprise, but we still think the end of the hiking cycle is approaching. In any case... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Apr. 2023) March’s batch of PMIs showed that activity in non-oil sectors in Qatar and Saudi Arabia continued their good start to the year, whereas in Egypt the near-term pain from higher inflation and a weaker... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Activity in Nigeria slumped in Q1 Data suggest that Nigeria’s key oil sector perked up in early-2023, but this was more than offset by weakness in the non-oil economy on the back of bungled demonetisation efforts. And we expect... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs: weaker activity and inflation The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity was broadly flat in Q1, and confirm that the post-COVID rebound in China was concentrated in the service sector. The upside is... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing remains subdued The manufacturing PMIs for March made for pretty downbeat reading in most EMs and the outlook for the coming months remains lacklustre. One source of comfort however is that, at an EM level, price... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1) There was plenty to be encouraged by in the Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys, with firms’ sales expectations holding up even as labour and other capacity pressures eased considerably... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a new cyclical low of 46.3 in March, from 47.7, indicates that the post zero-Covid recovery in manufacturing activity in China has not benefited US... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The OPEC+ oil cuts and what they mean for MENA The surprise announcement of a further 1.66mn bpd cut to oil output by OPEC+ will reduce GDP growth mechanically in the Gulf economies by around 1-2%-pts this year, although the corresponding rise in... 3rd April 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month paints a downbeat picture of a sector unable to escape from a severe energy crisis. The figures are consistent with manufacturing output... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Uneven consumer recovery slowing down Consumer spending jumped during the first two months of the year as virus disruptions faded. The March retail sales data won’t be published for another couple of weeks. But the data we have so far... 3rd April 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Turkey CPI (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs for March were weak in Czechia and Poland and suggest that industry remained in recessionary territory in Q1. But there were some bright spots, including the marked improvement in... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
