Event MENA Drop-In: Can Egypt get its IMF deal back on track? 13th September 2023, 11:00AM BST Reports are swirling of yet more delay to the latest review of Egypt’s IMF deal, the central bank is preparing to meet in a pressurised market environment and speculation about a sovereign default…
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2) The downward revision to the euro-zone’s second-quarter GDP data means the economy is now thought to have essentially flat-lined since the fourth quarter of last year. With business surveys having... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (July) Aggregate German industrial output fell sharply again in July and the fall was even larger if the construction and energy sectors are excluded. We expect production to drop further in the rest of the... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Q2 GDP resilient, but weakness to come Excluding China, aggregate EM GDP growth held up surprisingly well in Q2. That said, we think growth will weaken in most major economies in Q3 and remain subdued over the coming quarters before a... 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain and Italy hit harder by ECB rate hikes The higher share of floating rate mortgages in Italy and Spain means that household interest spending in both countries has risen much further than in Germany and France. Interest spending is also set... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Aug.) The rise in the ISM services index to a six-month high of 54.5 in August, from 52.7, is a further sign that activity growth is holding up in the third quarter. That said, a weighted average of the two... 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal policy to remain looser than pre-Covid The German government is unlikely to announce the kind of big stimulus package that some are calling for. However, fiscal policy will remain much more supportive than it was before the pandemic. 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus What’s behind South Africa’s growth problem? South Africa’s economy has one of the weakest growth records of any EM over the past decade and its post-pandemic recovery has been particularly disappointing. At the heart of the problem are major... 6th September 2023 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s external imbalances starting to unwind Having ballooned during the post-pandemic recovery, Colombia’s current account deficit has started to narrow and should continue to do so in the coming quarters. This, alongside the shift in financing... 5th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (July 2023) The larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m decline in Brazilian industrial production in July, taken together with weakness in some of the surveys for August, suggests that the sector may contract in q/q terms... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Aug. 23) August’s batch of PMIs for the region showed that activity in non-oil private sectors in the Gulf eased, but that activity remained strong. In contrast, Egypt’s PMI remained below the 50-mark and the... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (August 2023) The final PMIs published today were revised down from the already-low levels reported in the flash measure two weeks ago. The Services Business Activity PMI slumped compared to July, and although the... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q2) The 0.6% q/q rise in South Africa’s GDP in Q2 was stronger than expected but more timely indicators point to a weak start to Q3. And the backdrop of severe power cuts, tight policy and worsening terms... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss GDP (Q2.) Weak manufacturing and investment weighed on the Swiss economy in Q2, leaving GDP unchanged from the previous quarter. We think activity will be sluggish for the rest of the year as the effects of... 4th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the odd one out We no longer expect Japan’s economy to enter a recession. However, with real household incomes set to fall until the end of this year, domestic demand growth will remain sluggish. Accordingly, we... 4th September 2023 · 18 mins read
