Asia Economics Focus The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario... 2nd August 2022 · 23 mins read
China Economics Update The limitations of China’s “new infrastructure” push Spending on high-tech “new infrastructure” should result in higher returns than adding more highways and railway lines. But it is not as effective a channel for cyclical policy stimulus. And a state... 7th July 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update What impact would removal of Trump tariffs have? Cancelling all of the Trump tariffs on China would give a smaller direct boost to China’s export sector than many might think. More important would be the signal a unilateral rollback would give that... 9th June 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Why won’t the government help households? The view that policy support is best directed towards investment rather than consumption is deeply rooted in China. A few token consumer voucher schemes aside, this doesn’t seem to be changing. 8th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus What will China do with its FX reserves? In adapting to the threat of having its foreign exchange reserves frozen, the People’s Bank is likely to shift more of its portfolio into unconventional alternatives, including EM sovereign debt and... 1st April 2022 · 19 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2022 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress signal that China’s leadership is expecting much weaker growth this year than the relatively upbeat GDP growth target might... 7th March 2022 · 19 mins read
China Economics Update China stands to lose not gain from war in Ukraine As Russia becomes increasingly isolated, it will lean more heavily on China as a trading partner. That will present some opportunities for Chinese firms to take market-share from western suppliers and... 2nd March 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China can’t shield Russia from sanctions The financial sanctions that have been imposed on Russia by the West put significant practical constraints on China’s dealings with Russia even where they don’t restrict them directly. There is little... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China won’t hurt itself to help Russia China’s leadership is trying to straddle a geopolitical divide. Russia is an ally, but being seen to take its side would hasten China’s decoupling from the West. Most likely, China will support Russia... 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Olympics highlights growing rift with the West At the Beijing Winter Olympics, China is once again displaying its sporting prowess. But the international reception has been notably icier than that for the 2008 Summer Games, highlighting that China... 17th February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China-Taiwan ≠ Russia-Ukraine A Russian invasion of Ukraine would not make a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely and would not undermine the willingness or ability of Taiwan’s allies to come to its defence. 15th February 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update US-China trade deal stalemate will drag on China made none of the additional purchases it committed to under the Phase One trade deal. The Biden administration isn’t pleased but doesn’t have good options to force China to do more. And China... 10th February 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Peak homebuilding The amount of residential floor space being built in China hit a record last year. With new project starts dropping sharply recently, the government has now unveiled plans to ramp up construction of... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update What to expect in China in 2022 2022 will be a year of slower growth in China as the property and export sectors weaken and structural constraints loom larger. A desire to keep a grip on credit risks will inhibit the policy response... 5th January 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Two years on Two years since some cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan, China is facing a convergence of economic headwinds. The PBOC is treading very carefully but with the leadership... 17th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why is inflation different in Asia? Inflation hasn’t emerged as a concern across Emerging Asia in the same way it has in the rest of the emerging world, in part because food price inflation in Asia is much lower, but also because the... 22nd November 2021 · 10 mins read
