China Economics Update A property tax could make up for fewer land sales Local governments in China are far less reliant on land sales as a source of revenue than is often claimed. While slowing real estate development will create a funding gap, it could be more than... 5th October 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update The curious case of the super-stable renminbi We think that the renminbi’s period of remarkable calm will end before long, and that it will depreciate against the US dollar over the next few months. In view of the wider interest, we are also... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Most developers are not on the brink of default With a couple of exceptions, most major developers are in a much stronger financial position than Evergrande and should be able to weather a temporary spike in their borrowing costs amid contagion... 22nd September 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Where might markets be wrong about Evergrande? If Evergrande were to cause a financial or economic shock it would either be because policymakers failed to contain financial contagion or because the company’s collapse precipitated a much bigger... 22nd September 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Focus A dive into the National Infrastructure Pipeline The Indian government’s aim to significantly ramp up infrastructure investment through its flagship National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) has suffered less disruption than might have been expected... 20th September 2021 · 14 mins read
China Economics Focus Mapping decoupling China and countries that align more closely with it than with the US together account for around half of the world’s population. But the China bloc is far smaller economically than the US bloc and far... 17th September 2021 · 26 mins read
China Economics Update Property crunch will be followed by lasting decline The root of Evergrande’s troubles – and those of other highly-leveraged developers – is that residential property demand in China is entering an era of sustained decline. Relaxation of regulatory... 15th September 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Evergrande circling the plughole Evergrande’s collapse would be the biggest test that China’s financial system has faced in years. Policymakers’ main priority would be the households that have handed over deposits for properties that... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
China Economics Weekly Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign? What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Inequality moves up the CPC’s agenda China’s leadership has signalled a growing focus on reducing inequality. This could boost the productivity of low-income households and speed up the long-touted rebalancing toward consumption. But, if... 19th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Five years on from the “End of a Golden Age” Five years ago this October, we published a piece arguing that the “golden age” for emerging markets had ended and that they were entering a period of permanently weaker growth. Since then, many of... 18th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Economics The global implications of a slowdown in China The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some... 23rd July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus The implications for China and the world of eCNY In this Focus we detail what is known about China’s central bank digital currency and analyse its implications for China and the world. The Focus is fully updated to incorporate the latest publicly... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
China Economics Update Employment already declining at pace Revisions to the historic data following the recent census show that China’s population barely grew last year and that employment is already contracting faster than previously understood, having... 24th June 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus The implications for China and the world of eCNY In this Focus we detail what is known about how China’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) will operate, when it will launch, what the People’s Bank is trying to achieve, and whether it will succeed... 27th May 2021 · 29 mins read
