AI bubble could continue to inflate, in the US and globally We think the S&P 500 will make further gains over the coming months, even though it’s already fared well this year and is approaching our existing end-year forecast. As such, we’ve revised that... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What’s driving the US stock market? The US stock market has been pulled in different directions by economic data since last week. But we suspect that the general trend in the next year or so will be up, as equities benefit from at least... 4th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Stock markets fall back: consolidation or worse? Stock markets are having a tough start to the quarter, but we think that they will rebound, notably in the US, thanks to renewed enthusiasm about artificial intelligence. 22nd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: Global AI spending will drive rapid growth Taiwan will be one of the main beneficiaries of a lengthy global AI investment boom. We expect its economy to growth much faster over the rest of this decade than it did during the 2010s. 9th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Tough times for Japanese equities may not last We expect Japanese equities to do quite well this year, as hype around artificial intelligence proves a more powerful catalyst than the headwind we anticipate from a stronger yen. 8th April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Software increasingly driving productivity gains We still believe that the current productivity boom is mainly a cyclical phenomenon, as tight labour market conditions have forced firms to expand output by boosting the efficiency of their existing... 26th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily How the Fed might – or might not – affect the markets Our view that Treasury yields will fall back a bit and that the US dollar will generally weaken by the end of the year rests on the assumption that the Fed will deliver more rate cuts than currently... 20th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will the equity risk premium disappear? Given our view that a stock market bubble will inflate in the US, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the equity risk premium (ERP) shrinking further in the near term. This might even go as far as the... 18th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EM Asian equities’ comeback may be just the start Equities in Emerging Asia have outperformed those elsewhere in recent weeks, and we think that they’ll keep doing well during the rest of the year. 26th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Can the party keep going for Japan’s equities? We think Japan’s stock market will take a turn for the worse before long, weighed by what we expect will be a rebound in the yen. And while that nonetheless could mean decent returns in US dollar... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Focus India’s economy in the era of AI India is certain to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next decade, but the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) will hamper rather than help its rise. This is in... 23rd January 2024 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rally in the S&P 500 has a lot further to run Judging by the latest rally in some ‘big-tech’ sectors, renewed hype around Artificial Intelligence (AI) seems to explain why the S&P 500 has just racked up a new record high despite a recent rebound... 22nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
The impact of AI on non-US stock markets While we think that enthusiasm around Artificial Intelligence (AI) will mean that equities in the US keep outperforming this year, we see scope for equities in the rest of the world to fare quite well... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Don’t fear AI; Canada could benefit more than most A version of this article appeared in the Globe and Mail on 3rd January 2024. 3rd January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily “Growth” may keep outperforming “value” next year While the valuation gap between “growth” and “value” factors in the US is high by past standards, we suspect that “growth” will generally keep outperforming in the next year or two. 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
