Commodities Update Risk of tighter agricultural export restrictions growing The recent tightening of export restrictions has been limiting the supply of staple agricultural commodities available to global markets and pushing up prices. In light of the ban on wheat exports... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas supply to Europe to remain uncertain News of force majeure on one of the pipelines in Ukraine bringing Russian natural gas to Europe just adds to our conviction that Europe is going to struggle to meet its gas needs over the next year... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks mount as commodity prices surge Surging commodity prices have pushed up inflation across the region and we expect inflation to hit fresh multi-year highs in the coming months. A loss of Russian gas supplies should not lead to... 28th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recession risks take centre stage The Russian economy will collapse this year and we expect spillovers from the war in Ukraine to cause a recession in many of the smaller countries in the region, particularly Bulgaria and the Baltic... 20th April 2022 · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Surging food prices and supply fears a threat to EMs Most EMs are not heavily dependent on Russia or Ukraine for their domestic food supplies, but there are key pockets of vulnerability due to large wheat, corn and vegetable seed/oil exports to Turkey... 13th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Peace talks, Russia’s gas solution, Fidesz set for victory Optimism about the prospect of an end to the war in Ukraine came and went this week and, given the complexity of the issues at stake, it is likely to be some time yet before a breakthrough in talks is... 1st April 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs declined across the region in March amid the war in Ukraine, and with supply chain disruptions and price pressures set to intensify, industry looks set to contract in the coming... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia entering recession, slowdowns in CEE The war in Ukraine has devasted its economy, while Western sanctions are likely to push Russia into a deep contraction, with GDP set to fall by 12% this year. Immediate fears of a Russian sovereign... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: War reinforces weak values outlook The war in Ukraine will have spillover effects for property in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), albeit that Russia will be far worst hit. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on... 30th March 2022 · 18 mins read
Long Run Update The long-run effect of the Ukrainian refugee crisis The main long-run economic impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis will be to boost the workforce of countries where the migrants settle, partially offsetting the unfavourable demographics that many of... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia/Ukraine spillovers to hit CEE economies hard There are already clear signs of spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe from the war in Ukraine and we think that the overall hit to GDP growth in the region this year will amount to 1.0-1.5%-pts... 29th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE The potential for around 3 million refugees to settle in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by the middle of this year will present a large fiscal cost, but will also boost the size of the labour force... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Contagion risks to CEE banks likely to be limited A close look at banking sector linkages in Central and Eastern Europe provides encouragement that there is little direct exposure to Russia and Ukraine and that any indirect exposure through a Western... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s inflation shock, default & peace talks Russia’s default saga seems to be settled for the time being, with creditors reportedly now receiving scheduled Eurobond payments, but the fact that it came so close to default suggests that sanctions... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Assessing the impact of the Ukraine war Next week we will learn more about the extent to which the Ukraine war is impacting economic activity. We have cut our GDP forecast by one percentage point for this year, but the risks to that... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update First signs of Ukraine war’s impact on euro-zone firms The latest surveys show that the war in Ukraine has severely dented euro-zone investors’ and companies’ perceptions of the outlook. This is consistent with our view that the war will cause a... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
