Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine: a weekend catch-up On the military front, while events remain in flux, the Russian advance has proceeded more slowly than had been anticipated. Kyiv, seemingly Russia’s main target, remains under the control of Ukraine... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Reflecting on the week that war began Russia's invasion of Ukraine this week will have significant and far-reaching implications and while reports of talks raise hopes, a halt to fighting does not look imminent. Russia's economy is likely... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update How the Russia-Ukraine war is shaking up the markets outlook Amid all the volatility in global markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict so far, we think there are several key lessons we can draw from the relative performance of bonds, equities and currencies... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack War in Europe Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil in financial markets across the region. Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russia, including targeting some of its largest banks and... 25th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the cost of sanctions on Russia The latest Western sanctions on Russia will hit its economy hard through tighter financial conditions and reduced trade, and might plausibly hit GDP by 1-2%-pts. But sanctions stopped short of the... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Russia/Ukraine generates more upside risk to inflation Today’s grave escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict threatens to keep CPI inflation in the UK even further above the 2% target this year and reduce households’ real incomes by even more. The... 24th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Six questions on Ukraine and the euro-zone The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased uncertainty about the economic outlook for the euro-zone. While things are changing rapidly, at this stage we think the main effects will be... 24th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Commodities The latest Russia-Ukraine escalation and our forecasts The latest twist in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to keep commodity prices elevated over the coming weeks and months. And if the situation spirals into a more serious and wide-ranging conflict... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update 8 questions about the Russia-Ukraine crisis This Update answers eight key questions for economies and markets in light of the escalation in the Ukraine conflict overnight. All clients are invited to a Drop-In at 14.00 GMT/09.00 EST when our... 24th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the upside risk to oil prices It is not in the economic interests of either Russia or the West to use trade in energy as a weapon against each other, but that is not to say it won’t happen. If energy flows were disrupted, we think... 22nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine crisis adds to strain on central banks The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a challenge for central banks in advanced economies as they weigh the upside risks to inflation against the downside risks to activity. For now, we suspect that the two... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Recapping the economic and market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis The economic and market consequences of a war between Russia and Ukraine will depend on the severity of the conflict, and the response of the West. But in most cases the economic impact on countries... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update The Ukraine crisis and the euro-zone revisited While the simmering tensions over Ukraine could keep euro-zone inflation higher for longer than most expect, we think that it is unlikely to put the ECB off plans to start normalising policy this year... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Assessing the risks of a Russian invasion of Ukraine In this Update, we discuss the possible ramifications for the global oil and natural gas markets of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much would depend on whether Western sanctions are placed on Russian... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia-Ukraine and the impact on the rest of the region The rest of Emerging Europe is particularly exposed if a further escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions lead to higher global energy prices and disruptions to commodity exports, with Bulgaria and the... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Ukraine’s macro vulnerabilities Ukraine’s economy as a whole is in a better position to weather significant capital flight and sharp falls in the hryvnia than at any point in the past decade. But even so, there are key pockets of... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
