Emerging Europe Economics Update Faltering reform drive clouds Ukraine outlook The coronavirus crisis has already dealt a heavy blow to the Ukrainian economy and the risks to the outlook are growing: recent challenges to the independence of the central bank and anti-corruption... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap A closer look at frontier dollar bond issuance A handful of frontier market governments have issued Eurobonds over the past few months, but these could create vulnerabilities further down the line, particularly in Egypt, Ukraine and Bahrain... 14th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine in the spotlight, Russia’s sanctions threat The resignation of Ukraine’s central bank governor, Yakiv Smolii, this week is unlikely to upend the country’s IMF deal, but failure to replace him with a credible candidate or backsliding on recent... 3rd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish rates, Ukraine elections, Czech tightening cycle Turkish financial markets took Thursday’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut in their stride but we don’t think that this resilience will last. Investors seems to be coming round to our view that... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What’s at stake in Ukraine’s presidential election? Ukraine’s presidential election this Sunday is set to be a close race but, whoever ultimately wins, it looks like the recent shift away from orthodox policymaking will continue. Dollar bond spreads... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian election, signs of stimulus in Russia Pro-IMF comments this week from the front-runner in Ukraine’s presidential election race (and comedian), Volodymyr Zelenskiy, reduce the risk that this month’s vote could trigger an adverse reaction... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poor election results to prompt Polish fiscal splurge The worse-than-expected performance of the ruling PiS party in Poland’s local elections last weekend is likely to prompt policymakers in Warsaw to ramp up social spending ahead of next year’s... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: New IMF deal a positive, but still not in the clear The announcement on Friday that Ukraine has come to an agreement with the IMF to replace its current bailout package should reduce risks posed by the government’s large upcoming FX debt repayments... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks hint at rate hikes, Turkish GDP figures Central banks in both Russia and Turkey created a stir this week by raising the prospect of rate hikes, but we think that the degree of tightening in Turkey will disappoint markets and policymakers in... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery remains on track Frontier financial markets have endured a torrid 2018, but this hasn’t been accompanied by a deterioration in the hard activity data. Admittedly, growth in the largest frontier economy, Nigeria... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe: inflation eases, but not for long The scale of the decline in inflation in Central Europe over the past month has taken many by surprise and reinforced expectations in the financial markets that monetary policy will remain very loose... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
