UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Underlying retail sales volumes aren’t as soggy as the 0.9% m/m drop in March suggests as some of that fall was due to the unusually wet weather. The further rebound in consumer confidence in April... 21st April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Dodging a deep downturn, but challenges far from over There are encouraging signs that the energy crisis is receding, the worst of the downturn is passing and that inflation has peaked across the region, but this year will still be challenging. We expect... 30th March 2023 · 29 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-China ties in full swing, Ukraine’s IMF deal Russia-China relations were on full show this week as China's President Xi visited Moscow and the two counties announced a raft of measures to increase ties over the coming years. China has helped... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Markets and Russia’s invasion, one year on Despite first appearances, financial markets haven’t shrugged off the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and we think the ramifications could continue to be important to investors. 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack One year into the war in Ukraine The first year of the war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the country’s economy and left it highly dependent on financing from allies. Russia’s economy has contracted too, but it weathered... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook brightens, but tough times still ahead The growth outlook for 2023 across Central and Eastern Europe has brightened a bit over the past month. Wholesale European natural gas prices have continued to fall sharply and survey measures of... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Insights from Euromoney’s CEE conference Europe’s energy crisis, sky-high rates of inflation and Ukraine’s reconstruction were among the biggest topics of conversation at Euromoney’s Central and Eastern European forum in Vienna this week... 12th January 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Jump in interest rates takes its toll The return of inflation for the first time in the inflation-targeting era has led to the biggest jump in Bank Rate and mortgage rates since the late 1980s. The steady downward trend in mortgage rates... 19th December 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Winter recession in motion Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Black Sea grain deal blow adds impetus to lofty prices Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative will exacerbate sky-high prices and tight global supply, and adds to the likelihood that prices hover around historical highs for the... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region heading for recession Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost... 13th October 2022 · 29 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s mobilisation, external conditions tighten President Putin's "partial mobilisation" of Russian military reservists this week as part of its ongoing war with Ukraine could have important macro implications for Russia's economy through... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures showing signs of easing Inflation now seems to be approaching a peak across the region. Commodity prices have fallen, supply constraints have eased, pipeline price pressures have softened and firms’ selling price... 22nd September 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Rebuilding Ukraine: how much, who pays, what’s next? The war in Ukraine is dragging on, but there is now growing attention on the country’s eventual reconstruction. We think the government’s target of $750bn of total funding is unlikely to be met ($300... 19th August 2022 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine default, Russia return to fiscal normality? Policymakers in Ukraine devalued the hryvnia this week and asked creditors to suspend debt repayments, which will free up funds for the government, but will add to inflation and increase balance sheet... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Where could we be wrong on agricultural prices? We expect that the prices of agricultural commodities will fall back gradually over this year and next, but remain historically high. However, the volatility of prices in recent months and the... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
