China Economics Update What do the protests mean for Hong Kong’s economy? The immediate economic impact of the protests in Hong Kong will be very small. But continued erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy, which is threatened by the proposed extradition law, would undermine a key... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed again in the first quarter of the year, and the economy is now expanding at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. With exports likely to remain in the... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth in Hong Kong to remain weak in 2019 Hong Kong’s economy ended last year on a weak note as exports slumped and household spending softened. We think growth will remain subdued in the months ahead. The relatively expansionary budget... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update House prices most vulnerable in Hong Kong & Canada Several of the world’s most overvalued housing markets have taken a turn for the worse, and history suggests the risks of large house price corrections are greatest where monetary conditions are... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong withstand a property crash? With property sales slowing and monetary conditions likely to remain tight over the coming year, there are growing concerns about a possible slump in home prices in Hong Kong. We expect prices to fall... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed in Q3 to a two-year low in year-on-year terms, a trend we think will continue over the quarters ahead as headwinds from tightening monetary conditions and rising global... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Which countries are manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Vietnam is currently the only country in Emerging Asia... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Hong Kong’s economy slowed last quarter in year-on-year terms after expanding in Q1 at the fastest pace since 2011. Looking ahead, with headwinds from tightening monetary conditions building and... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Capital flows balanced despite rise in trade tensions Against a backdrop of rising trade tensions with the US and jitters about the wider outlook for emerging economies, capital flows in and out of China have been broadly balanced. Global investors still... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in nearly seven years. We think GDP growth has now peaked though and will slow over the coming months as headwinds from tightening... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong interest rates to rise as liquidity tightens The HKMA’s sales of foreign exchange FX to support the Hong Kong dollar, which hit the weak end of its trading band this week for the first time since 2005, shows the exchange rate regime working as... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rising interest rates, trade tensions loom over HK Economic growth in Hong Kong has cooled in recent quarters, and we think this trend will continue over the coming months. Domestic monetary conditions are likely to tighten sharply this year, while... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the Hong Kong dollar peg under threat? The Hong Kong dollar has weakened this week to historic lows, though remaining within the narrow confines of its currency peg. But this is the result of ample domestic liquidity which has kept local... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong to cool in 2018 Hong Kong’s economy ended last year on a fairly strong note, supported by buoyant exports. But we think growth will slow over the quarters ahead. The expansionary budget unveiled today will provide... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Consumers remain upbeat The latest data on retail sales during China’s National Day “Golden Week” period suggest that consumer demand remains strong. Despite a further increase in overseas tourism during the holiday... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
