Asia Economics Weekly How do our forecasts differ from the consensus and the IMF? For most countries, our forecasts are a little bit below those of both the consensus and the IMF. However, there are three economies, Hong Kong, the Philippines and Pakistan where we think other... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What’s going on with the Hong Kong dollar? While other currencies have recently been rising against the US dollar, the Hong Kong dollar has been sliding to historic lows, albeit within the narrow confines of its currency peg. This is the... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook Official data published on Monday show that commercial banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratio held steady at 1.74% in Q2 and that their net profits grew almost 12% y/y, the fastest pace since 2014... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Hong Kong’s economy continued to expand at a rapid pace in Q2, driven by strong household spending and investment. But we think GDP growth will slow in the second half of the year. The recent strength... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update HK property prices set to fall as interest rates rebound The prospect of a property downturn triggered by monetary tightening in the US has long been the biggest risk hanging over Hong Kong’s economy. But while US interest rates have risen this year, rates... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policy controls drive property demand to small cities The resilience of home sales in China (up 18% y/y in June) has raised questions about the effectiveness of government efforts to cool the sector, which have been stepped up in recent months. In fact... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus 20 years on: assessing the past and future of Hong Kong 1st July marks the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to China. The city’s economy has continued to prosper over the last two decades, defying gloomy predictions made by some before the handover... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Impact of mainland-HK bond connect likely to be small Regulators this week approved a scheme that will allow investors with brokerage accounts in Hong Kong to invest directly in mainland bond markets, set to be launched before the end of this year. But... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy expanded in Q1 at the fastest pace in five years in y/y terms, boosted by strong growth in exports and investment. But this is likely to be as good as it will get. While external... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Concerns over regulatory tightening spook investors China’s equity markets saw the biggest fall since 2016 in April after policymakers ramped up their rhetoric on limiting financial risks. Meanwhile, the renminbi has remained stable against the US... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Household credit boom set to slow Household borrowing has soared over recent months, largely in the form of mortgages. But this boom is probably nearing an end. Restrictions on property purchases have been reintroduced in many cities... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New (non-consensus) growth forecasts for Hong Kong Hong Kong’s economy has rebounded over the past year and is likely to stay strong in the near-term, supported by rapid export growth, and we have raised our forecast for 2017. But we expect a fresh... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Stronger exports to boost growth in 2017 Buoyant global demand should help to support growth across most of Emerging Asia over the coming quarters, but mounting domestic headwinds mean a strong rebound is not on the cards. Although the... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Feb.) The latest import data from China and India show a mixed picture of gold demand in the two largest consumers. While China’s demand has started the new year on a soft note, an easing of the liquidity... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can Carrie Lam solve Hong Kong’s problems? There is little doubt that Carrie Lam, the former head of Hong Kong’s civil service and the candidate preferred by Beijing, will be chosen on Sunday as the city’s next chief executive. But she won’t... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Hong Kong and Singapore: a tale of two housing markets The gradual deflation of what had looked like a housing bubble in Singapore has left the economy in much better shape to cope with rising interest rates. The contrast with Hong Kong, where property... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
