China Chart Pack No sign of labour market fragility Evidence that China’s labour market stayed strong last year should provide some respite from concerns that the country’s economy is collapsing. China created over 13 million new urban jobs in 2015... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong’s peg survive a speculative attack? A shift in market expectations about China’s exchange rate has put Hong Kong’s peg to the US dollar under fresh scrutiny. But despite the surge in speculation, we think the peg will stay for years to... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Stronger end to the year One implication of the US Fed’s decision to raise interest rates is that its concerns about China have receded. Certainly, the financial market turmoil that spilled over from China to the rest of the... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (Oct.) Mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong fell in October following increases in the three previous months. We expect total imports by China to rise in the coming months and imports by India to... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack More positives than negatives in October data The latest round of Chinese data was met with plenty of gloomy headlines. We think these were overdone. The cloud over China’s economy may not have lifted but there were more positives than negatives... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Hong Kong is often seen as a bellwether for the state of global trade. As such, its latest GDP figures are relatively reassuring, with growth of goods exports picking up and GDP growth last quarter... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Services strength underpinning rebalancing For all the (justified) doubts over the accuracy of the headline growth rates, the third quarter GDP data provide evidence of encouraging shifts in the economy. According to the official data... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Little chance of a Hong Kong de-pegging Although there has been a surge of speculation in the wake of China’s exchange rate move that Hong Kong could abandon its US dollar peg, we expect the peg to remain in place well into the next decade. 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Tianjin disaster to hit August data, but impact transitory Economic activity in Tianjin has yet to return to normal several days after the devastating explosions there. The city is a major industrial centre and the world’s tenth largest port. While most of... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed last quarter, dragged down by a fall services exports and subdued consumer spending. Looking ahead, we expect growth to remain weak in the coming quarters as exports... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three reasons why growth should hold up in coming quarters Sentiment about the economic outlook for China has darkened again, with the equity market debacle casting a shadow. But we see three reasons to be relatively positive about prospects for growth in the... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Signs labour market losing some momentum The equity market has received all the attention recently but evidence that the labour market is coming off the boil arguably matters more to China’s economy. There was a big fall in the ratio of job... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Credit slowdown to weigh on Asian growth After a poor start to 2015, we expect growth in Emerging Asia to pick up in the second half of the year as the benefits of lower oil prices and loose monetary policy filter through to the domestic... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Uptick in sales won’t spark property revival Strong sales and rebounding prices have raised hopes that China’s property sector is on the cusp of a turnaround. But those expecting a return to the rapid rates of construction growth seen over the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (May) A sharp rise in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in May could have been driven by fears of a further correction in Chinese equities. While imports from India were up 16% y/y in May, they... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Debt swap helping to boost credit growth The local government debt swap is starting to have an impact on the flow of financing in China that has been widely overlooked and that should support the economy. Local governments have begun to... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
