China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
Asia Economics Update A guide to political events in 2021 In this Update we take a look at the important elections and political events that are set to take place across Asia over the coming year as well as any potential flashpoints, assessing the... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Virus disruptions linger but vaccines deliver This week’s lockdown of Shijiazhuang, a city of 11 million, is a reminder that sporadic flare-ups of COVID-19 are still imposing an economic cost on China. Domestic passenger travel in particular... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Credit risk awakens from COVID-19 hibernation With output now back to its pre-virus path and the labour market returning to health, policymakers appear to have decided that the time has come to instil a bit more discipline into credit markets. By... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech giants in the Party’s crosshairs The abrupt suspension of Ant’s IPO, which was supposed to enter the record books this week as the world’s largest, is a stark reminder of the political risks and lack of transparency that are still... 6th November 2020 · 8 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy expanded for the first time in over a year last quarter, thanks to fiscal stimulus and stronger foreign demand. Output is still well below its previous peak due to the double blow... 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Recovery broadening out China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending boon, property developer caution Holiday spending during China’s ongoing “Golden Week” should ease concerns that lacklustre consumption will cause the economic recovery to stall. The property sector remains, in our view, a bigger... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Government bonds to rally in the coming years FTSE Russell yesterday announced that it will include China in its World Government Bond Index (WGBI). The resulting shift in passive funds could more than double foreign inflows into Chinese... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Surge in truck sales adds to signs of a robust recovery Firms are adding to their fleets of trucks at the fastest pace in a decade, suggesting that they expect growth in industry to accelerate well above trend in the next few quarters. One near-term prop... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly The Phase One trade deal is on borrowed time Next week’s semi-annual review of the Phase One trade deal will likely be a sobering affair given China’s limited progress toward meeting its purchase commitments. While both sides appear content to... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly What if Chinese banks are cut off from SWIFT? Financial decoupling between the US and China could be far more disruptive to both China and the global economy than anything the Trump administration has attempted so far. But much of what is... 30th July 2020 · 8 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy stabilised last quarter as fiscal stimulus and stronger demand in mainland China offset weaker consumption and investment. But with the city facing its worst COVID-19 outbreak yet... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Monetary easing cycle nearing an end With fiscal stimulus ramping up and economic recovery well underway, the PBOC appears to see less of a need to encourage stronger private borrowing. Broad credit growth still looks set to accelerate... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Old” beats “new” in near-term infrastructure boost Despite all the recent focus on hi-tech “new infrastructure”, policymakers are still leaning far more heavily on traditional infrastructure construction, which looks set for a boom judging by the... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
