China Economics Update How many Chinese will hop overseas this year? The Year of the Rabbit that begins on Sunday will see a revival in outbound tourism from China that we expect to be stronger than recoveries seen elsewhere. China is reopening into a world that has... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: The latest on China’s reopening, Asian monetary policy, and markets 1674720000 China’s shift from zero-COVID is the big Asia story of the moment and our economists gave an update on what this means for the region’s growth outlook, including how quickly outbound tourism is rec
FX Markets Update Another look at the Hong Kong dollar Downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar has abated in recent weeks and we think it is very unlikely that the existing currency framework will be abandoned any time soon. In view of the wider... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Rate cuts in 2023 as growth slows Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Bumpy road before zero-COVID is left behind The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear... 9th December 2022 · 23 mins read
China Chart Pack Xi’s third term starts with COVID quarantines surging On some measures China’s current COVID situation is about as bad as it has ever been. While far fewer infections are being found daily than at the peak of the Omicron wave, new cases are... 1st November 2022 · 11 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy contracted last quarter due to a sharp decline in exports. While the ongoing easing of virus-related restrictions should continue to support a recovery in retail spending... 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
China Chart Pack PBOC moving to defend key renminbi threshold The renminbi has weakened 2.5% against the US dollar since mid-August and is nearing our year-end forecast of 7.00/$. This is mostly a reflection of broad dollar strength – the renminbi is little... 31st August 2022 · 13 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation... 20th July 2022 · 34 mins read
China Chart Pack Domestic weakness frees up ports for exports The Omicron virus wave in China appears to have eased global shipping bottlenecks rather than worsened them as many had feared. Firms were able to re-route shipments through other ports to avoid... 28th June 2022 · 12 mins read
China Economics Weekly Show us the money The State Council has expanded on its call for policy support for the economy to be stepped up. But nothing has been done about the funding strains faced by local governments who bear much of the... 2nd June 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech sector reprieve, cyclical trough? Officials are turning less hostile toward tech firms. But the economic drag from the regulatory crackdown, which we think has knocked 0.3%-pts off of annual GDP growth, is unlikely to dissipate... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP contracted in the first quarter of the year, and although there are signs that activity is rebounding, we expect the recovery to prove weak. While virus containment measures are being... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
