Europe Economics Update Greece faring better than we had feared While the Greek economy is set to slump this year, it is becoming increasingly clear that the drop in activity will be much less severe than we previously anticipated. We now think that the Greek... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Covid-19 pulls rug from under Greek recovery Just as the Greek economy was getting back on its feet the coronavirus pulled the rug from under it. And while the government’s generous fiscal support will cushion the blow, it also raises questions... 5th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is southern Europe finally embracing e-commerce? While COVID-19 has forced consumers in southern Europe to shop online, we think that e-commerce penetration will remain lower for structural reasons, which is one reason why prime retail rents in... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek pensions: a step in the wrong direction A decade after the start of its first bailout programme, the Greek government has still not reined in the cost of its pension system. And the government’s recent decision to raise pensions suggests... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greece reforms: progress but more to be done In its first five months in office Greece’s new government has implemented a range of tax cuts that should support the economy and has made a start with some structural reforms. But we are sceptical... 26th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Greece/Italy 10-yr spread will fall further in our view The yield of 10-year government bonds in Greece is now only slightly above that of 10-year government bonds in Italy. Given Italy’s comparatively poor growth and debt dynamics and greater political... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lift-off for Athens prime retail? We expect the upturn in consumer confidence in Greece this year to feed through to a pick-up in retail sales growth, supporting retailer demand in Athens. Coupled with further yield falls, Athens high... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt sustainable but will remain “junk” Under any plausible growth scenario Greece’s credit rating is likely to remain well below investment grade over the coming years. Among other things, this means that Greek bonds will not be included... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New Democracy, same old problems New Democracy’s clear victory in Greece’s parliamentary elections yesterday will be welcomed by investors. But it will not be a game changer for the economy, not least because the government will... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Next Greek government to inherit plenty of challenges The next Greek government, to be formed after a general election which is less than three weeks away, will inherit an economy that looks set to grow at a moderate pace in the near term. But it will... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italy may soon be considered riskier than Greece The spread between the yields of 10-year government bonds in Greece and Italy has fallen sharply following the latest European Parliament elections. We now forecast that it will turn negative... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eight quick points about the European elections Projections of the results of the European elections confirm that pro-European parties will continue to have a clear majority in the European Parliament (EP) itself, so little will change at EU level... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek recovery likely to lose pace The Greek economy looks set to expand at a modest pace this year. But next year, it will probably slow as investment continues to contract and the slowdown in the rest of the euro-zone weighs on... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-gloom, Brexit fears and Greek politics This week saw more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, the UK parliament rejected the EU Withdrawal Agreement, once again raising the spectre of a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
