Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Retail sales made a strong start to 2022 and, while the hit to household purchasing power from higher gasoline prices is a headwind to further growth in sales volumes, the fact that consumer... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Can the housing market handle higher interest rates? The rise in mortgage rates implied by our new higher policy rate forecasts would reduce affordability by 12% over the next year which, in isolation, is not especially alarming when considering that... 17th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) While the price increases in February were not as broad-based as in January, they nevertheless caused all three of the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures to rise further and suggest that, even... 16th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The sharp fall in manufacturing sales volumes in January was at least in part due to the impact of staff absenteeism amid the Omicron outbreak and, with hours worked across the sector increasing... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to be more aggressive amid booming jobs market The surprisingly strong rise in employment in February reduces the downside risks to near-term economic activity from higher energy prices and reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada will now hike... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The labour market boom resumed in February and the odds of a sharp acceleration in wage growth are rising, which would add to the pressure for the Bank of Canada to continue raising interest rates. 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Current account set for largest surplus since 2006 The surge in commodity prices means that, after ending last year in deficit, the current account is set to move into a surplus of around 1.5% of GDP in the first half of this year. 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Higher forecasts for GDP, inflation and interest rates Surging commodity prices have led us to substantially increase our forecasts for consumer price inflation, but the negative impact of higher prices on household purchasing power, and therefore real... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The goods trade balance moved back to a surplus of more than $2bn in January and, based on the recent broad gains in commodity prices, it is likely to hit close to $5bn this month. If that were... 8th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Following first rate hike, QT will be “next step” We expect the Bank of Canada to follow its interest rate hike this week with another one in April, when the Bank also seems likely to begin quantitative tightening. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST/15:00... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Assessing the impact of the war in Ukraine for Canada Higher commodity prices and stronger immigration from Ukraine are potential benefits for Canada’s economy from the war in Ukraine, but there is a risk that near-term real GDP growth disappoints due to... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hikes by 25bp but holds off from QT The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bp today was widely expected and the statement supports our view that it will follow up with another hike next month, but there was little... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4) GDP rose by more than expected in the fourth quarter and the preliminary estimate suggests that, despite the Omicron outbreak, GDP rose further in January. This continued strength supports our view... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Terms of trade most favourable on record For Canada, the main impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis so far has been to push up the terms of trade to the most favourable on record. That could lead to the Bank of Canada becoming more hawkish... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada to hike rates and start QT We expect the Bank of Canada to kick off its tightening cycle next week with a 25bp rate hike and an announcement that it will begin quantitative tightening. Amid signs of broadening inflationary... 23rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Inflationary pressures broadening The evidence of broadening inflationary pressures and the further rise in oil prices suggest that the balance of risks to our inflation forecast lies to the upside. The January consumer price data... 23rd February 2022 · 8 mins read
