Canada Economics Weekly Strong Q4 but growing downside risks to Q1 The activity data released this week suggest that the economy was in a strong position in the fourth quarter and the price data imply that inflationary pressures are broadening. The surge in... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices rose at a more modest pace in November, but the increase in the Bank’s preferred measure of core inflation suggests that price pressures are broadening. Note: Central Bank Drop-In –... 15th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government fails to deliver on election pledges The government’s fall fiscal update suggests the public finances will be in a better position in the coming years than we had assumed, but this is largely because the government chose not to deliver... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s updated framework maintains the status quo The Bank of Canada’s updated policy framework will not have a material effect on policy over the next couple of years, but it does support our forecast that inflation will be slightly higher on... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank growing more concerned about cost pressures The Bank of Canada’s increased concerns about wage and cost pressures suggest it will start to tighten policy in April, especially if the government loosens fiscal policy in next week’s fall fiscal... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank keeps policy rate guidance unchanged The Bank of Canada’s unchanged policy rate guidance implies it could wait until the third quarter before raising rates but, given wage growth is now picking up sharply, we expect it to pull the... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Oct) The restart of motor vehicle production across the continent boosted Canada’s exports and imports sharply in October, although there are downside risks to trade in November due to the infrastructure... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to hike sooner as labour market nears full health As the labour market is nearing a full recovery and wages are rising strongly, we now expect the Bank to hike interest rates in April, rather than waiting until July, as we previously expected. 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The surge in employment in November and the further strong gain in average earnings have arguably tipped the odds in favour of the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates in the first half of next year... 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update A last hurrah for housing We are not convinced by the Bank of Canada’s view that the renewed strength of house prices is due to “extrapolative expectations”. With mortgage rates jumping recently, the large price gain in... 2nd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to keep policy rate guidance unchanged Growing wage pressures and the renewed strength of house prices are likely to concern the Bank of Canada but, with oil prices plunging in the past week due to fears about the Omicron variant, we doubt... 1st December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3) We wouldn’t put too much weight on the stronger-than-expected pace of third-quarter GDP growth because it mainly reflects a downward revision to GDP in the second quarter. Nevertheless, the latest GDP... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada avoids winter wave, but new variant a threat Winter is coming but, unlike Europe and the US Midwest too, Canada hasn’t seen a new wave of coronavirus infections. The emergence of a new potentially more-virulent coronavirus strain in South Africa... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Wage growth picking up The sharp slowdown in the pace of hiring in the October Labour Force Survey caught the headlines, but the more important development was the sharp rise in fixed-weight average hourly earnings. Based... 23rd November 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly House prices surge, floods devastate BC The renewed surge in house prices could persuade the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates sooner than we forecast, although the hit to activity from the devasting floods in BC this week reduces the... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The ongoing supply chain disruptions and unseasonably warm weather explain most of the weakness of retail sales in September, but it seems likely that the winding down of fiscal support to households... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
