Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) Mexican industrial production data for July were a little stronger-than-expected. But even so, the figures suggest that the economy remained weak at the start of Q3. 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker currencies part of the solution, not the problem The economic outlook for Latin America remains pretty gloomy. Weaker growth in China and lower global commodity prices will depress export revenues and, as incomes fall, cause domestic demand to... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rate hike not the start of an aggressive tightening cycle Although the timing of Peru’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bp (to 3.50%) was a surprise, we had been expecting the central bank to shift into tightening mode in the coming quarters... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Fresh commodity price weakness weighs on EM exports EM exports fell sharply in July on the back of the renewed drop in global commodity prices. And the early data suggest that things are unlikely to have improved last month either. 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities the biggest casualty of Fed uncertainty Equity markets in the emerging world have been the biggest casualty of the uncertainty about when the Fed will finally push the button on rate hikes. For our part, we still expect “lift-off” later... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of EM capital controls is overdone Despite concerns in some quarters, EM policymakers are unlikely to introduce capital controls. Many EMs are dependent on capital inflows – which capital controls would discourage – and many are likely... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2) The pick-up in Colombian GDP growth in the second quarter was encouraging, but with the full effects of the fall in oil prices yet to feed through, this is as good as it’s going to get for the next... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Brazil inflation from 9.6% y/y in July to 9.5% y/y in August should mark the start of a steady decline over the coming months. However, as the minutes from last week’s COPOM meeting (also... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM foreign currency debt to perform badly, but crisis unlikely We do not think that the downgrade of the Brazilian government’s foreign currency debt to “junk” status marks the beginning of a systemic emerging market (EM) sovereign debt crisis. But we do expect... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EMs and Fed tightening revisited The outcome of next week’s FOMC meeting is finely balanced, but it’s possible that it could deliver the first increase in US interest rates since 2006. In this Focus we revisit research we’ve... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil downgraded, fiscal mess deepens There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Aug. – 1st Sep.) Data released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, revealed that the amount of sugar cane harvested in Brazil’s main sugar producing South-Central region in the second half of... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to buck the regional trend in August, falling for a tenth consecutive month, to 2.6% y/y. With the headline rate falling further below target, and the peso stabilising... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to buck the regional trend in August, falling for a tenth consecutive month, to 2.6% y/y. With the headline rate falling further below target, and the peso stabilising... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which EM currencies are most vulnerable to snap sell-offs? Our Currency Vulnerability Index (Curvi) suggests that the Brazilian real, Turkish lira, South African rand and Colombian peso remain the most exposed emerging market (EM) currencies to snap sell-offs... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2015) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that total capital outflows from EMs increased in August to their highest level since the global financial crisis. This was overwhelmingly due to flows out of China. By... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
