Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Chilean inflation last month, to 5.0% y/y, coming on the back of the hawkish message in the central bank’s latest Inflation Report, suggests that rate hikes may come sooner than we... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Chile’s IMACEC activity indicator in July was encouraging, even more so given that activity was affected by strike action at state owned mining company, Codelco... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth now not much faster than DM growth On some measures, the slowdown in emerging markets (EMs) in the second quarter of this year meansthat EM growth is now not much faster than developed market (DM) growth. 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's fiscal mess goes from bad to worse The move by Brazil’s government to yet again lower its fiscal targets for 2016 means that its projections for the public finances are finally starting to look realistic. But at the same time, they... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s dire industrial production data from Brazil suggest that the economy has made a terrible start to Q3 and are an ominous first sign that the country’s recession will extend into the second half... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will corporate debt be the source of the next EM crisis? We think emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated corporate bonds will perform poorly over the coming years, but we do not agree with suggestions that they will be the source of an imminent EM crisis... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Outlook for EM manufacturers deteriorates further August’s PMIs, published earlier today, paint a gloomy picture of the health of the emerging world.Conditions in manufacturing appear to have deteriorated further across a wide swath of EMs last month... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The drop in August’s manufacturing PMIs from both Brazil and Mexico follows the pattern set in other countries around the globe last month and will feed concerns about a more general downturn in the... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness to have mixed impact on EM inflation The recent bout of currency weakness is likely to add to inflation concerns in EMs that have either seen their currencies fall a long way or have limited spare capacity in their economies (mainly... 31st August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2) The 1.9% q/q fall in second quarter GDP in Brazil was broadly in line with our forecast but a bit worse than the consensus had expected. To compound matters, revisions to the back series mean that the... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update China concerns send Lat Am markets tumbling The turmoil of the past few weeks has pushed many financial markets in LatinAmerica below our end-year targets. If we’re right in thinking that China’seconomy should avoid the hard landing that many... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth lacklustre, but not collapsing EM growth edged down further in June. But for all the gloom in the headlines, we see no sign of the collapse some are talking about. In particular, in China, after a weak start to the year, conditions... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Back in the spotlight Latin America has found itself back under the spotlight in recent weeks, this time as concerns over the economic outlook for China – the largest trading partner for most countries in the region – have... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Equity valuations no longer stretched after August sell-off Emerging Market (EM) equity valuations are no longer stretched either in an absolute or relative sense following the summer sell-off. Once the recent volatility in global markets settles down, we... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will policymakers respond to the market rout? China’s interest rate cut has helped to stem the panic that has gripped emerging markets in recent days, but it has also raised the obvious question about whether other EMs may follow suit. We doubt... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker real starting to bring benefits to Brazil The latest slump in Brazilian markets has added to gloom over the outlook for the economy, but there are early signs that a much weaker real is now starting to benefit the country’s trade position. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
