Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest commodity collapse Of the major EMs, the biggest losers from the most recent fall in commodity prices have been Russia, Nigeria and Colombia, while the biggest winners have been Korea, India and Thailand. A similar... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in Mexican inflation in July to a new record low of 2.7% y/y brought further evidence that the continued depreciation of the peso isn’t fuelling price pressures. With inflation falling... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation last month to a twelve-year high of 9.6% y/y underscores the need for policymakers to keep interest rates high, even if – as they have signalled – the... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Crisis deepens in Brazil The economic and political troubles facing Brazil have deepened over the past few weeks. The good news is that we think the big falls in the prices of the country’s commodity exports are probably now... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2015) The falls in commodity prices over the past year have caused consumer spending to slow in many commodity-exporting countries, with Russia and Brazil being hit particularly hard. Only consumers in... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Copper prices could eventually boost equities in Chile and Peru Our bullish view on copper prices suggests that stock markets in Chile and Peru could outperform over the medium-term, but persistently low oil prices look set to be an unwanted headwind for equities... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Another bad month for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies suffered more heavy losses in the past month and while further big falls are hard to justify over a medium term horizon, there could be more downside in the near term... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial production data from Brazil, while better than expected, are still consistent with GDP falling by the most since the depths of the global financial crisis in Q2. 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still subdued, Central Europe a bright spot July’s PMIs, published earlier today, showed that manufacturers across much of the emerging world struggled last month. The one bright spot was Central Europe, where the surveys improved in spite of... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil slashes its fiscal goals The substantial cuts to Brazil’s primary surplus targets announced this month underline the inherent difficulty of fixing budget problems against the backdrop of a weakening economy. As it happens... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Jun.) Activity data from Chile were stronger than expected in June but, as a result of softer figures for April and May, we still think that GDP growth in Q2 will be weaker than in Q1. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes rates, tightening cycle probably over The decision by Brazil’s monetary policy committee (COPOM) to raise interest rates by another 50bp to 14.25% was largely expected, but the move to signal the end of the tightening cycle in the... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Russia and Brazil EM growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2009 in May. But the aggregate data have been pulled down by problems in Russia and Brazil. In contrast, other parts of the EM world have seen a pick-up in... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies hover around record lows The fact that many of the region’s currencies are now trading at or close to record lows against the dollar has grabbed all the headlines in recent weeks, but the falls of most currencies month-to... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed won’t spark EM sell-off today, but data may add to volatility We do not expect any fireworks in EM financial markets after today’s FOMC statement, but with policymakers likely to reiterate that the timing of “lift-off” will be data dependent our upbeat view on... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s credit bubble deflating, consumers feel the squeeze A combination of increases in policy interest rates and curbs on lending by some public banks is taking some of the air out of Brazil’s credit bubble. So far it seems that the bubble is deflating... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
